Rio Ave vs Estoril – 31 Jan 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 31 · 16:00 Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Rio Ave 14th · 7 pts · 8 played LLDLW

VS— Compare

Estoril 18th · 2 pts · 8 played LDLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel300 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Rio Ave—%

Draw—%

Estoril—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Vila do Conde)

Forecast from 16 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estoril 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Rio Ave

Estoril

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

18 AttackIn forecast 21

21 DefenceIn forecast 29

17 Form indexContext 10

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rio Ave

Estoril

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.75 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.47

38% Scored inContext 50%

13% Clean sheetsContext 13%

7.63 ShotsContext 12.88

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

41% On target shareContext 39%

3.29 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

39% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 4%

1.25 OffsidesContext 2.00

16.38 Shots allowedContext 13.75

5.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

3.75 BlocksContext 3.86

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

62% Save rateContext 61%

45% PossessionIn forecast 47%

363 PassesContext 402

300 Accurate passesContext 322

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.70

8.88 FoulsContext 10.88

12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

50% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

7.90 ShotsContext 12.70

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

39% On target shareContext 38%

3.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

42% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 5%

1.25 OffsidesContext 1.67

16.60 Shots allowedContext 13.50

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.30 BlocksContext 3.78

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

63% Save rateContext 58%

45% PossessionIn forecast 48%

362 PassesContext 411

298 Accurate passesContext 333

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.69

9.40 FoulsContext 11.00

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rio Ave LLDLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km51 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

W11 OctH · Nacional3–21.7 xPts
L19 SepA · Alverca0–11.0 xPts
D14 SepH · Estrela3–31.4 xPts
L6 SepA · Santa Clara0–40.9 xPts
L28 AugH · Sporting CP0–40.6 xPts

Estoril LDLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel300 km619 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L10 OctA · Academico Viseu1–21.0 xPts
L20 SepH · Casa Pia1–21.8 xPts
L14 SepA · SC Braga0–10.7 xPts
D7 SepH · Arouca0–01.4 xPts
L31 AugA · Benfica1–20.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rio Ave	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	300 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	51 km	619 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rio Ave Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Nacional (H) 3–2, 11 Oct

32Vitor Hugo

17M. Vrousai 39Gustavo Mancha 5A. Ntoi 20João Tomé

54G. Liavas 79M. Patricio

7Diogo Bezerra 19M. Sellouki 80S. Clemmensen

11Jalen Blesa

Estoril Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Academico Viseu (A) 1–2, 10 Oct

1Joel Robles(G)

5A. Tsoungui 6Xavi Sintes 35S. Amissah

21R. Jurišić 10J. Holsgrove 44M. Robin 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

7André Lacximicant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rio Ave Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Estoril Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Rio Ave · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.75

Estoril · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Rio Ave	Estoril
Nacional	W 3–2 H	L 0–2 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Rio Ave wins3 draws3 Estoril wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.56 Over 2.556% Both scored56% Clean sheets22% · 22%

22 Aug 2026Estoril0–2Rio Ave
22 Mar 2026Estoril1–2Rio Ave
1 Nov 2025Rio Ave0–4Estoril
22 Feb 2025Estoril2–1Rio Ave
21 Sep 2024Rio Ave2–2Estoril
31 Jan 2024Rio Ave1–1Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rio Ave	Estoril
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	2.13	1.50
Match goals	3.13	2.00
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	38%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	25%	50%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	63%	50%
Games	8	8

	Rio Ave	Estoril
Scored per game	1.00	0.60
Conceded per game	2.20	1.60
Match goals	3.20	2.20
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	40%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rio Ave	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	5.57
Corners conceded	6.13	4.14
Match total	9.88	9.71	8.91
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.75	2.38
Opponent cards	1.25	1.38
Match total	3.00	3.76	4.55
Over 3.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	38% 3/8

	Rio Ave	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	5.00
Corners conceded	6.11	4.67
Match total	10.00	9.67	8.91
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.40
Opponent cards	1.30	1.60
Match total	3.20	4.00	4.55
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.