Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente

Primeira Liga Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 31 · 16:00 Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras

Casa Pia 17th · 4 pts · 8 played LDLWL

VS— Compare

GIL Vicente 6th · 14 pts · 8 played LLDWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Rest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Casa Pia—%

Draw—%

GIL Vicente—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Jamor, Oeiras)

Forecast from 16 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Insight GIL Vicente +0.26 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.15xG against0.89

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Casa Pia

GIL Vicente

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

13 AttackIn forecast 32

25 DefenceIn forecast 50

19 Form indexContext 46

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

GIL Vicente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Casa Pia

GIL Vicente

0.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

0.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.65

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

25% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 50%

9.63 ShotsContext 13.50

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

27% On target shareContext 28%

6.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

59% Box shareContext 61%

4% ConversionContext 7%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.57

15.25 Shots allowedContext 11.13

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75

5.71 BlocksContext 2.71

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29

67% Save rateContext 76%

44% PossessionIn forecast 53%

343 PassesContext 472

268 Accurate passesContext 409

78% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.44 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.13 FoulsContext 13.13

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75

2.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

30% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.60 ShotsContext 13.10

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

32% On target shareContext 28%

6.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

60% Box shareContext 58%

5% ConversionContext 7%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.56

15.50 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

5.67 BlocksContext 3.00

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

70% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

327 PassesContext 447

251 Accurate passesContext 386

77% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.56 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.60 FoulsContext 13.00

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Casa Pia LDLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L10 OctH · Santa Clara0–11.1 xPts
W20 SepA · Estoril2–11.0 xPts
L12 SepH · FC Porto1–40.5 xPts
D6 SepA · Guimaraes0–00.7 xPts
L30 AugH · Moreirense0–11.5 xPts

GIL Vicente LLDWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—45 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 46 · 7 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W19 OctA · SC Braga2–10.8 xPts
W9 OctA · Moreirense1–01.3 xPts
D19 SepH · Maritimo1–12.0 xPts
L13 SepA · Benfica1–30.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Academico Viseu0–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	45 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Casa Pia Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Santa Clara (H) 0–1, 10 Oct

95Ivan Mandić(G)

75Pedro Rosas 43David Sousa 3Kaly 18André Geraldes

80L. Ofori 16Silvi

77B. Pauwels 70João Rêgo 11M. El Boukammiri

9Henrique Araújo

GIL Vicente Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Braga (A) 2–1, 19 Oct

30Lucão(G)

45David Moreira 39Jonathan Buatu 4M. Elimbi 47Ricardo Esgaio

86Diogo Prioste 12A. Lausen

20Gil Martins 10Santi García 77Murilo

99M. Kaba

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Casa Pia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

GIL Vicente Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Casa Pia · Home 0.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 3.25

GIL Vicente · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente
Moreirense	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 A
Benfica	L 0–7 H	L 1–3 A
Maritimo	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Points	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Casa Pia wins3 draws5 GIL Vicente wins

Goals per game0.56 – 1.33 Over 2.522% Both scored44% Clean sheets22% · 44%

24 Aug 2026GIL Vicente2–0Casa Pia
27 Apr 2026GIL Vicente2–1Casa Pia
13 Dec 2025Casa Pia1–1GIL Vicente
22 Feb 2025Casa Pia1–0GIL Vicente
22 Sep 2024GIL Vicente1–1Casa Pia
3 Mar 2024Casa Pia0–0GIL Vicente

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente
Scored per game	0.38	1.00
Conceded per game	2.13	0.75
Match goals	2.50	1.75
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	38%	25%
Over 3.5	25%	13%
Both teams scored	25%	38%
Clean sheets	13%	50%
Failed to score	75%	25%
Games	8	8

	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente
Scored per game	0.50	0.90
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	2.30	2.10
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	40%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	40%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	60%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.71
Corners conceded	6.25	3.43
Match total	10.25	7.14	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	14% 1/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	0% 0/7
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.25
Opponent cards	2.13	2.25
Match total	4.51	4.50	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8

	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	3.56
Corners conceded	6.40	3.56
Match total	10.50	7.12	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	11% 1/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.10
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	4.90	4.00	4.55
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.