Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel39 kmRest days7 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Arouca—%
Draw—%
FC Porto—%
Weather (Arouca)
Forecast from 16 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Arouca and FC Porto. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
FC Porto
+0.62
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.75xG against1.13
-
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
FC Porto
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
FC Porto
4
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
FC Porto
4
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
FC Porto
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AroucaFC Porto
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
28
AttackIn forecast
74
37
DefenceIn forecast
80
45
Form indexContext
84
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaFC Porto
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
2.24
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
75%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.50
ShotsContext
16.25
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
36%
On target shareContext
40%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
11.25
60%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.71
14.25
Shots allowedContext
10.25
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
3.75
BlocksContext
2.75
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
81%
Save rateContext
77%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
440
PassesContext
426
372
Accurate passesContext
363
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.05
10.38
FoulsContext
13.88
10.38
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.30
ShotsContext
14.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
35%
On target shareContext
39%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
60%
Box shareContext
72%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.25
13.80
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.00
BlocksContext
2.80
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
79%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
439
PassesContext
416
370
Accurate passesContext
351
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.00
FoulsContext
13.60
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
WDLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km103 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
FC Porto
WWWWL
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel39 km4,438 km in 14d
Schedule load45%High
Form 84 · 12 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | High · 45 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan | 3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 27 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 103 km | 4,438 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 4 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Last XI · not confirmed
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
FC Porto
Last XI · not confirmed
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
13P. Rosario
52Martim Fernandes
10Gabri Veiga
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
11Pepê
19André Silva
17Borja Sainz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Porto
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Moreirense | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Arouca wins1 draws7 FC Porto wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.67
Over 2.556%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets0% · 56%
- 23 Aug 2026FC Porto2–0Arouca
- 27 Feb 2026FC Porto3–1Arouca
- 29 Sep 2025Arouca0–4FC Porto
- 1 Mar 2025Arouca0–2FC Porto
- 29 Sep 2024FC Porto4–0Arouca
- 12 Feb 2024Arouca3–2FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Arouca | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 6.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 8.51 | 10.38 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 3.13 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Arouca | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.60 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Arouca8 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
FC Porto8 games · scored 20 · conceded 4
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
