Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,522 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Famalicao—%
Draw—%
Santa Clara—%
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
Forecast from 16 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Famalicao and Santa Clara. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Santa Clara
+0.43
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.18xG against0.75
-
Trend
Famalicao
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Santa Clara
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Famalicao
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.90xG against1.13
Attack
-
Insight
Santa Clara
+0.43
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.18xG against0.75
-
Trend
Santa Clara
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Famalicao
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Santa Clara
0.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Famalicao
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.90xG against1.13
Team strength
FamalicaoSanta Clara
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
29
36
DefenceIn forecast
53
30
Form indexContext
73
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoSanta Clara
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
75%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
63%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.13
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
27%
4.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
47%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.88
Shots allowedContext
7.75
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.38
2.75
BlocksContext
1.63
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
59%
Save rateContext
83%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
472
PassesContext
379
405
Accurate passesContext
300
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.63
FoulsContext
13.25
15.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.60
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
31%
On target shareContext
24%
5.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
48%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.60
Shots allowedContext
8.80
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
2.67
BlocksContext
2.10
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
62%
Save rateContext
88%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
465
PassesContext
367
399
Accurate passesContext
289
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.90
FoulsContext
12.50
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
DDDWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,444 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Santa Clara
DWWDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,522 km1,927 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,522 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,444 km | 1,927 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Last XI · not confirmed
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
15Víctor Rofino
36M. Mattara
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
21Tamás Szücs
8Marcos Peña
7Sorriso
14M. De Amorim
23Gil Dias
70G. Koutsias
Santa Clara
Last XI · not confirmed
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
42Lucas Soares
20Tiago Ribeiro
6Pedro Ferreira
8José Tavares
10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
9Gonçalo Paciência
70Vinícius Lopes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Santa Clara
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Santa Clara · Away
2.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Famalicao | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | L 1–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Nacional | W 4–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Famalicao wins0 draws3 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game1.43 – 0.86
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 14%
- 23 Aug 2026Santa Clara1–0Famalicao
- 18 Jan 2026Santa Clara0–1Famalicao
- 10 Aug 2025Famalicao3–0Santa Clara
- 10 May 2025Santa Clara2–1Famalicao
- 30 Dec 2024Famalicao1–2Santa Clara
- 19 Feb 2023Santa Clara1–3Famalicao
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 38% | |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 63% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Famalicao | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 9.51 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.76 | 5.13 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Famalicao | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.90 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Famalicao8 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Santa Clara8 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
