Rio Ave vs Famalicao – 1 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 24 Sun, Mar 1 · 20:30 Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Rio Ave 15th · 20 pts · 23 played LLLLL

0–0Full time

Famalicao 6th · 35 pts · 23 played WLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Famalicao were slight favourites.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 19). Rio Ave had 7 days of rest, Famalicao 6 and had to travel 20 km.

Away travel20 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

Rio Ave30%

Draw30%

Famalicao41%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.26

Rio Ave31%

Draw27%

Famalicao42%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.46

Rio Ave30%

Draw30%

Famalicao41%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.26

Rio Ave24%

Draw28%

Famalicao47%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.41

Rio Ave30%

Draw29%

Famalicao41%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.32

Over 2.5 40% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila do Conde)

No weather data yet

RefereeJosé Bessa

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 28

Team strength

Rio Ave

Famalicao

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

18 AttackIn forecast 24

21 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rio Ave

Famalicao

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.26

1.91 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.91

0.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

57% Scored inContext 70%

9% Clean sheetsContext 48%

8.96 ShotsContext 12.09

4.05 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.29

39% On target shareContext 32%

5.75 Shots in the boxContext 8.23

60% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.53

16.13 Shots allowedContext 10.87

5.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.91

4.35 BlocksContext 2.77

3.64 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

65% Save rateContext 79%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

378 PassesContext 384

315 Accurate passesContext 313

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.70 FoulsContext 16.78

15.17 Fouls sufferedContext 16.17

2.22 Yellow cardsContext 2.52

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

30% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

8.00 ShotsContext 11.60

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

35% On target shareContext 35%

4.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.22

56% Box shareContext 54%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.80 OffsidesContext 1.00

16.60 Shots allowedContext 10.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

4.30 BlocksContext 2.70

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

59% Save rateContext 72%

47% PossessionIn forecast 53%

388 PassesContext 409

325 Accurate passesContext 341

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.30 FoulsContext 15.00

15.70 Fouls sufferedContext 16.10

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rio Ave

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km51 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel20 km606 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rio Ave	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb	6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	20 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	51 km	606 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99E. van der Gouw(G)

77O. Richards 39Gustavo Mancha 32J. Brabec 17M. Vrousai

5A. Ntoi 44T. Nikitscher

18D. Špikić 11Jalen Blesa 7Diogo Bezerra

9Tamble Monteiro

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-3-3

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 3L. Realpe 55I. Ba 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi 80Pedro Santos

7Sorriso 9Umar Abubakar 23Gil Dias

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rio Ave · Home 0.82points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.82

Famalicao · Away 1.36points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-4
Scored: 0.73
Conceded: 1.09

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Rio Ave	Famalicao
FC Porto	L 0–1 AL 0–3 H	L 0–1 H
Moreirense	L 1–2 HL 1–3 A	D 2–2 A
SC Braga	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H	L 1–2 H
Arouca	L 0–3 HD 3–3 A	D 1–1 A
Nacional	L 0–4 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Benfica	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Casa Pia	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Sporting CP	L 0–4 A	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 A	L 0–5 AD 0–0 H
Guimaraes	L 0–1 H	W 2–0 H
AVS	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A
Santa Clara	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Alverca	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Estoril	L 0–4 H	W 4–0 H
Estrela	W 2–1 A	L 2–3 H
Tondela	W 3–0 H	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Points	19 of 66 · 0.86 per game	34 of 66 · 1.55 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

0 Rio Ave wins5 draws2 Famalicao wins

Goals per game0.71 – 1.00 Over 2.529% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 43%

28 Sep 2025Famalicao0–0Rio Ave
10 Mar 2025Famalicao1–0Rio Ave
4 Oct 2024Rio Ave1–1Famalicao
16 Feb 2024Famalicao2–1Rio Ave
16 Sep 2023Rio Ave1–1Famalicao
26 May 2023Rio Ave2–2Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rio Ave	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.26
Conceded per game	1.91	0.91
Match goals	2.91	2.17	2.30
Over 1.5	87%	57%
Over 2.5	65%	39%	40%
Over 3.5	35%	22%
Both teams scored	52%	30%	47%
Clean sheets	9%	48%
Failed to score	43%	30%
Games	23	23

	Rio Ave	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.50
Conceded per game	2.30	1.20
Match goals	2.90	2.70	2.30
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	40%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	20%	47%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	70%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rio Ave	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.77	4.78
Corners conceded	6.82	5.26
Match total	10.59	10.04	9.21
Over 8.5	77% 17/22	65% 15/23
Over 9.5	64% 14/22	48% 11/23
Over 10.5	50% 11/22	48% 11/23
Cards
Cards	2.39	2.61
Opponent cards	2.52	2.17
Match total	4.91	4.78	5.17
Over 3.5	61% 14/23	70% 16/23
Over 4.5	52% 12/23	52% 12/23

	Rio Ave	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	4.00
Corners conceded	6.70	5.90
Match total	10.30	9.90	9.21
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.00
Opponent cards	2.10	1.80
Match total	3.90	3.80	5.17
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Bessa 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.96league 4.84

Red cards0.29league 0.27

Cards 5+54%league 59%

Fouls25.1league 26.9

Penalties0.21league 0.45

Home wins43%league 42%

Rio Ave3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W6 Dec 25A · AVS2–16
L27 Apr 25A · Guimaraes0–32
D21 Sep 24H · Estoril2–22

Famalicao4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L9 Nov 25H · FC Porto0–15
L10 May 25A · Santa Clara1–23
W30 Mar 25H · AVS4–12
W4 Nov 23H · GIL Vicente3–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.