Rio Ave
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rio Ave29.9%fair odds 3.35
Draw29.6%fair odds 3.38
Famalicao40.6%fair odds 2.46
Expected goals1.04 – 1.26total 2.30
Likeliest score1–113.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Famalicao
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rio Ave ↓ · Famalicao → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rio Ave goals, columns Famalicao goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.8%7.23
- 0–111.9%8.38
- 0–010.7%9.31
- 1–09.8%10.26
- 1–28.3%12.10
- 0–27.9%12.59
- 2–16.8%14.62
- 2–05.4%18.40
- 2–24.3%23.25
- 1–33.5%28.85
Winning margin
3.4%
Rio Ave by 3+
fair 29.63
8.2%
Rio Ave by 2
fair 12.15
18.3%
Rio Ave by 1
fair 5.48
29.6%
Draw
fair 3.38
22.2%
Famalicao by 1
fair 4.50
12.0%
Famalicao by 2
fair 8.31
6.3%
Famalicao by 3+
fair 15.78
Goal distribution
Total goals
11%0
22%1
27%2
20%3
12%4
8%5+
Rio Ave goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
Famalicao goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave win | 29.9% | 30.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Famalicao win | 40.6% | 40.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 40.4% | 43.5% | -3.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.0% | 49.6% | -2.6 pp |
| Expected goals Rio Ave | 1.04 | 1.10 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Famalicao | 1.26 | 1.32 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rio Ave win29.9%3.35
- Draw29.6%3.38
- Famalicao win40.6%2.46
- Double chance Rio Ave or draw59.4%1.68
- Double chance Rio Ave or Famalicao70.4%1.42
- Double chance Famalicao or draw70.1%1.43
- Draw no bet Rio Ave42.4%2.36
- Draw no bet Famalicao57.6%1.74
Goals
- Over 0.589.3%1.12
- Over 1.567.6%1.48
- Over 2.540.4%2.48
- Over 3.520.0%4.99
- Over 4.58.4%11.96
- Under 1.532.4%3.08
- Under 2.559.6%1.68
- Under 3.580.0%1.25
Both teams to score
- Yes47.0%2.13
- No53.0%1.89
- Yes and over 2.533.2%3.02
- Rio Ave win and yes12.2%8.21
- Draw and yes18.8%5.31
- Famalicao win and yes16.0%6.25
Team goals
- Rio Ave over 0.564.7%1.55
- Rio Ave over 1.527.9%3.58
- Rio Ave over 2.58.8%11.37
- Famalicao over 0.571.6%1.40
- Famalicao over 1.535.8%2.79
- Famalicao over 2.513.3%7.50
- Rio Ave clean sheet28.4%3.52
- Famalicao clean sheet35.3%2.83
- Rio Ave win to nil17.7%5.65
- Famalicao win to nil24.6%4.07
Handicap
- Rio Ave −1.511.6%8.62
- Rio Ave −2.53.4%29.63
- Famalicao +1.588.4%1.13
- Famalicao +2.596.6%1.03
- Famalicao −1.518.4%5.44
- Rio Ave +1.581.6%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored214
Favourite won61.2%
Avg chance given to result44.8%
1X2 Brier0.526
Over 2.5 called right57.9%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 37.7% | 46.3% |
| 40–50% | 69 | 44.7% | 49.3% |
| 50–60% | 41 | 54.6% | 61.0% |
| 60–70% | 30 | 65.4% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 75.2% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 180 of 214 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5161 | 0.5035 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.4% | 47.2% |
| Favourite won | 63.3% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 180 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗AVS 0–0 Estrela34·30·36
- ✓Sporting CP 3–0 Estoril74·17·9
- ✓FC Porto 3–1 Arouca68·20·12
- ✓Famalicao 2–0 Casa Pia46·28·26
- ✓FC Porto 1–0 Rio Ave77·16·7
- ✗Estoril 3–1 GIL Vicente30·27·44
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 214 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.