Rio Ave vs Nacional – 17 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 17 · 15:30 Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Rio Ave

1–1Full time

Nacional 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rio Ave were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Rio Ave had ? days of rest, Nacional 8 and had to travel 1,205 km.

Away travel1,205 kmRest days? · 8Matches / 14d0 · 1

Rio Ave48%

Draw27%

Nacional25%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.05

Rio Ave49%

Draw26%

Nacional25%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.11

Rio Ave48%

Draw27%

Nacional25%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.05

Rio Ave40%

Draw28%

Nacional32%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.18

Rio Ave49%

Draw26%

Nacional25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.11

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila do Conde)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.57
Matches 7

Team strength

Rio Ave

Nacional

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 17

18 AttackIn forecast 15

21 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rio Ave

Nacional

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.20 ShotsContext 14.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

36% On target shareContext 30%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

59% Box shareContext 54%

11% ConversionContext 6%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.22

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.40 BlocksContext 2.80

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

69% Save rateContext 63%

49% PossessionIn forecast 52%

367 PassesContext 331

298 Accurate passesContext 257

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.84

14.40 FoulsContext 13.40

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rio Ave

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nacional

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,205 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rio Ave	Nacional
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,205 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1C. Miszta(G)

6N. Abbey 4J. Panzo 5A. Ntoi

3N. Athanasiou 10B. Aguilera 8T. Bakoulas 17M. Vrousai

80O. Pohlmann 9Clayton 11André Luiz

Nacional Confirmed XI

4-3-3

37Lucas França(G)

5José Gomes 38Zé Vitor 4Ulisses 2João Aurélio

15C. Labidi 6Matheus Dias 28Liziero

11Paulinho Bóia 9J. Ramírez 7Witi

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

Nacional Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Nacional+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rio Ave · Home No home games yet this season.

Nacional · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Rio Ave wins1 draws0 Nacional wins

Goals per game2.50 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

10 May 2025Nacional3–3Rio Ave
29 Dec 2024Rio Ave2–1Nacional

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rio Ave	Nacional	Forecast
Scored per game	—	0.00
Conceded per game	—	2.00
Match goals	—	2.00	2.59
Over 1.5	—	100%
Over 2.5	—	0%	48%
Over 3.5	—	0%
Both teams scored	—	0%	52%
Clean sheets	—	0%
Failed to score	—	100%
Games	0	1

	Rio Ave	Nacional	Forecast
Scored per game	—	0.00
Conceded per game	—	2.00
Match goals	—	2.00	2.59
Over 1.5	—	100%
Over 2.5	—	0%	48%
Over 3.5	—	0%
Both teams scored	—	0%	52%
Clean sheets	—	0%
Failed to score	—	100%
Games	0	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rio Ave	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	—	13.00
Corners conceded	—	6.00
Match total	—	19.00	9.18
Over 8.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	—	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	—	3.00
Opponent cards	—	6.00
Match total	—	9.00	4.73
Over 3.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	—	100% 1/1

	Rio Ave	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	6.11
Corners conceded	5.40	4.11
Match total	9.50	10.22	9.18
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.30
Opponent cards	2.30	2.80
Match total	4.80	5.10	4.73
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.86league 5.00

Red cards0.29league 0.00

Cards 5+57%league 58%

Fouls26.7league 29.6

Penalties0.57league 0.42

Home wins43%league 50%

Rio Ave

No previous matches with this referee.

Nacional

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.