Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rio Ave were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rio Ave. Rio Ave had 21.9 days of rest, Nacional 22 and had to travel 1,205 km.
Away travel1,205 kmRest days21.9 · 22Matches / 14d0 · 0
Rio Ave50%
Draw24%
Nacional27%
Rio Ave46%
Draw25%
Nacional28%
Rio Ave50%
Draw24%
Nacional27%
Rio Ave42%
Draw25%
Nacional33%
Rio Ave50%
Draw23%
Nacional26%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 42
Team strength
Rio Ave
Nacional
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
18
AttackIn forecast
15
21
DefenceIn forecast
13
21
Form indexContext
5
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveNacional
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
0.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.96
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
29%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
7.14
ShotsContext
10.71
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
36%
On target shareContext
27%
2.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
36%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.20
16.86
Shots allowedContext
15.14
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.14
4.14
BlocksContext
3.00
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
62%
Save rateContext
61%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
355
PassesContext
418
292
Accurate passesContext
347
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.65
9.14
FoulsContext
10.29
12.14
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
40%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.50
ShotsContext
10.90
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
31%
On target shareContext
28%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
45%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.17
16.50
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
4.50
BlocksContext
3.78
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
64%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
353
PassesContext
400
288
Accurate passesContext
328
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.67
9.60
FoulsContext
11.30
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
WLLDL
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 4 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
Nacional
LLLLL
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,205 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -5.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 22Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,205 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
32Vitor Hugo
17M. Vrousai
39Gustavo Mancha
5A. Ntoi
20João Tomé
54G. Liavas
79M. Patricio
7Diogo Bezerra
19M. Sellouki
80S. Clemmensen
11Jalen Blesa
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1R. Bellucci(G)
21W. Kokolo
38Zé Vitor
33Francisco Gonçalves
88Deivison
31D. Dongmo
15C. Labidi
12M. Song
20M. Djaló
10Daniel Júnior
29N. Kader
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Nacional · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Estrela | D 3–3 H | L 2–3 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| Estoril | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Rio Ave wins2 draws1 Nacional wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 25 Jan 2026Nacional4–0Rio Ave
- 17 Aug 2025Rio Ave1–1Nacional
- 10 May 2025Nacional3–3Rio Ave
- 29 Dec 2024Rio Ave2–1Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 3.14 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 43% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 71% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Rio Ave | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.14 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.86 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.60 | 8.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 2.86 | 4.00 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Rio Ave | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.25 | 8.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.40 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 4.19
Red cards0.19league 0.21
Cards 5+38%league 45%
Fouls28.1league 25.0
Penalties0.36league 0.33
Home wins52%league 37%
Rio Ave10 with this referee
Record4-2-4
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Aug 26A · Estoril2–01
- L28 Dec 25A · Sporting CP0–41
- L10 Mar 25A · Famalicao0–12
- W30 Nov 24H · Moreirense3–23
- W17 Aug 24H · Farense1–00
Nacional1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L30 Aug 26H · Estrela2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave7 games · scored 5 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Nacional7 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
