Süper Lig Gameweek 27 Sun, Apr 4 · 13:00 Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun
Samsunspor 17th · 4 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Istanbul Basaksehir 10th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel619 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Samsunspor—%
Draw—%
Istanbul Basaksehir—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Samsun)

Forecast from 20 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Samsunspor and Istanbul Basaksehir. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SamsunsporIstanbul Basaksehir
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 36
15 AttackIn forecast 32
18 DefenceIn forecast 35
4 Form indexContext 33
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Samsunspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SamsunsporIstanbul Basaksehir
0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.46
1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
50% Scored inContext 75%
13% Clean sheetsContext 38%
12.38 ShotsContext 11.88
3.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57
24% On target shareContext 34%
7.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.88
55% Box shareContext 54%
7% ConversionContext 13%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.50 Shots allowedContext 12.00
6.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71
3.88 BlocksContext 3.50
3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
63% Save rateContext 70%
55% PossessionIn forecast 52%
473 PassesContext 451
399 Accurate passesContext 383
84% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.61 Team ratingContext 6.75
12.75 FoulsContext 13.88
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.38
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.38
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.75
1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.05
50% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.00 ShotsContext 12.30
3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67
28% On target shareContext 34%
7.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.70
56% Box shareContext 59%
8% ConversionContext 14%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.80
16.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
4.00 BlocksContext 3.30
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11
65% Save rateContext 72%
56% PossessionIn forecast 50%
461 PassesContext 431
385 Accurate passesContext 364
84% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.66 Team ratingContext 6.79
12.50 FoulsContext 14.20
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Samsunspor
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,001 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 4 · 0 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -6.4 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Kasimpasa1–41.1 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Trabzonspor0–31.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Erzurumspor FK0–11.1 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Çorum FK1–51.7 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Kocaelispor0–11.3 xPts
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel619 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 33 · 7 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–12.0 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Konyaspor0–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Genclerbirligi4–01.8 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Amed0–51.2 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Galatasaray2–31.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Samsunspor Istanbul Basaksehir
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Süper Lig 2026-2027, 21 Mar14Süper Lig 2026-2027, 21 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km619 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,001 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Samsunspor Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Kasimpasa (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson 34G. Guarino 22Y. Çift 2J. Mendes
4Elliot Watt 19O. Øhlenschlæger
11E. Kılınç 20Y. Kayan 10T. Coulibaly
18M. Bayo
Istanbul Basaksehir Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Gazişehir Gaziantep (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
16M. Şengezer(G)
38S. Kharebashvili 27O. Ba 23E. Bayram 33M. Karbownik
18J. Kałuziński 8O. Kemen
77I. Brnić 14E. Shomurodov 70A. Skov Olsen
17U. Bozok

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Samsunspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Istanbul Basaksehir Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Samsunspor · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
3.25
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
0.33
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentSamsunsporIstanbul Basaksehir
Kasimpasa L 1–4 A D 1–1 H
Trabzonspor L 0–3 H L 1–2 A
Kocaelispor L 0–1 A W 2–0 H
Points0 of 9 · 0.00 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Samsunspor wins1 draws4 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.67 Over 2.533% Both scored0% Clean sheets33% · 83%
  • 9 May 2026Istanbul Basaksehir3–0Samsunspor
  • 14 Dec 2025Samsunspor0–2Istanbul Basaksehir
  • 1 Feb 2025Istanbul Basaksehir4–0Samsunspor
  • 18 Sep 2024Samsunspor2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
  • 3 Mar 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–0Samsunspor
  • 22 Oct 2023Samsunspor0–0Istanbul Basaksehir

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SamsunsporIstanbul BasaksehirForecast
Scored per game 0.881.50
Conceded per game 2.381.50
Match goals 3.253.00
Over 1.5 75%88%
Over 2.5 50%63%
Over 3.5 38%38%
Both teams scored 38%50%
Clean sheets 13%38%
Failed to score 50%25%
Games88
SamsunsporIstanbul BasaksehirForecast
Scored per game 1.001.70
Conceded per game 2.201.30
Match goals 3.203.00
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 60%70%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 30%50%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 50%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SamsunsporIstanbul BasaksehirLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.25
Corners conceded5.633.88
Match total9.638.139.12
Over 8.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 9.550% 4/825% 2/8
Over 10.538% 3/813% 1/8
Cards
Cards1.002.50
Opponent cards2.001.88
Match total3.004.384.04
Over 3.538% 3/863% 5/8
Over 4.525% 2/838% 3/8
SamsunsporIstanbul BasaksehirLeague
Corners
Corners won4.113.90
Corners conceded5.224.20
Match total9.338.109.12
Over 8.556% 5/950% 5/10
Over 9.544% 4/920% 2/10
Over 10.533% 3/910% 1/10
Cards
Cards1.302.40
Opponent cards2.201.90
Match total3.504.304.04
Over 3.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Samsunspor8 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
1 5 0-15
1 3 16-30
3 4 31-45
2 46-60
1 4 61-75
1 1 76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir8 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 3 61-75
2 3 76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
1 6 0-15
1 3 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
5 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 4 46-60
3 3 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Besiktas Kasimpasa Apr 413:00 Galatasaray Konyaspor Apr 413:00 Goztepe Fenerbahce Apr 413:00 Alanyaspor Genclerbirligi Apr 413:00 Rizespor Kocaelispor Apr 413:00 Gazişehir Gaziantep Trabzonspor Apr 413:00 Eyüpspor Amed Apr 413:00 Samsunspor Istanbul Basaksehir Apr 413:00 Çorum FK Erzurumspor FK Apr 413:00