Santa Clara vs Benfica – 13 Feb 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 22 Fri, Feb 13 · 18:30 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 16th · 17 pts · 21 played DLLLL

1–2Full time

Benfica 3rd · 49 pts · 21 played WWWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 20). Santa Clara had 6.1 days of rest, Benfica 4.9 and had to travel 1,445 km.

Away travel1,445 kmRest days6.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Santa Clara11%

Draw19%

Benfica69%

Expected goals 0.75 – 2.16

Santa Clara11%

Draw19%

Benfica70%

Expected goals 0.80 – 2.23

Santa Clara11%

Draw19%

Benfica69%

Expected goals 0.75 – 2.16

Santa Clara8%

Draw16%

Benfica76%

Expected goals 0.67 – 2.42

Santa Clara11%

Draw19%

Benfica70%

Expected goals 0.79 – 2.23

Over 2.5 56% Both score 47% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 74

Team strength

Santa Clara

Benfica

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

29 AttackIn forecast 81

53 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

Benfica

0.76 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.24 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.57

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.72

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

52% Scored inContext 90%

24% Clean sheetsContext 52%

11.48 ShotsContext 16.43

3.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

29% On target shareContext 37%

6.71 Shots in the boxContext 10.52

57% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 13%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.93

9.24 Shots allowedContext 7.90

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.80

2.43 BlocksContext 2.24

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.37

69% Save rateContext 82%

48% PossessionIn forecast 60%

366 PassesContext 494

296 Accurate passesContext 423

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.03

14.29 FoulsContext 11.19

14.57 Fouls sufferedContext 15.19

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.14

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.81

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

40% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.30 ShotsContext 17.70

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70

25% On target shareContext 38%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.90

52% Box shareContext 68%

6% ConversionContext 12%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.29

8.10 Shots allowedContext 8.30

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

2.71 BlocksContext 2.90

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.89

64% Save rateContext 71%

47% PossessionIn forecast 56%

351 PassesContext 470

281 Accurate passesContext 398

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.71 Team ratingContext 7.04

16.00 FoulsContext 9.50

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 16.60

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,876 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Benfica

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,445 km439 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb	4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,445 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,876 km	439 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Gabriel Batista(G)

64Paulo Victor 21F. Ferrão Venâncio 23Sidney Lima 42Lucas Soares

35Serginho 8Pedro Ferreira 77Gustavo Klismahn

10Gabriel Silva 39Gonçalo Paciência 70Vinícius Lopes

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 4António Silva 44Tomás Araújo

5E. Barrenechea 18L. Barreiro

21A. Schjelderup 27Rafa 25G. Prestianni

14V. Pavlidis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 1.00points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-6
Scored: 0.82
Conceded: 1.09

Benfica · Away 2.40points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 7-3-0
Scored: 1.90
Conceded: 0.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Santa Clara	Benfica
Estrela	L 0–1 AD 0–0 H	W 4–0 HW 1–0 A
Estoril	L 2–4 HW 1–0 A	W 3–1 H
Moreirense	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	W 4–0 A
Famalicao	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	W 1–0 H
Nacional	D 3–3 A	W 2–1 A
FC Porto	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 A
Arouca	D 0–0 H	W 5–0 H
SC Braga	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 A
Casa Pia	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 H
Rio Ave	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
GIL Vicente	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
AVS	W 2–0 H	W 3–0 A
Guimaraes	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 A
Tondela	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Alverca	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Points	16 of 60 · 0.80 per game	48 of 60 · 2.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Santa Clara wins1 draws4 Benfica wins

Goals per game0.40 – 2.40 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets0% · 60%

12 Sep 2025Benfica1–1Santa Clara
15 Feb 2025Santa Clara0–1Benfica
14 Sep 2024Benfica4–1Santa Clara
27 May 2023Benfica3–0Santa Clara
21 Jan 2023Santa Clara0–3Benfica

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	0.76	2.10
Conceded per game	1.24	0.57
Match goals	2.00	2.67	2.91
Over 1.5	48%	81%
Over 2.5	33%	62%	56%
Over 3.5	10%	29%
Both teams scored	38%	48%	47%
Clean sheets	24%	52%
Failed to score	48%	10%
Games	21	21

	Santa Clara	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	2.10
Conceded per game	1.30	0.60
Match goals	2.00	2.70	2.91
Over 1.5	30%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	47%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	60%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.47	6.55
Corners conceded	4.71	2.40
Match total	9.18	8.95	9.13
Over 8.5	65% 11/17	55% 11/20
Over 9.5	47% 8/17	40% 8/20
Over 10.5	29% 5/17	25% 5/20
Cards
Cards	3.05	2.24
Opponent cards	3.10	2.86
Match total	6.15	5.10	5.25
Over 3.5	86% 18/21	71% 15/21
Over 4.5	67% 14/21	62% 13/21

	Santa Clara	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	7.20
Corners conceded	4.00	2.40
Match total	8.80	9.60	9.13
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	1.30
Opponent cards	2.70	3.00
Match total	5.60	4.30	5.25
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 74 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 4.92

Red cards0.43league 0.28

Cards 5+57%league 59%

Fouls27.7league 27.0

Penalties0.35league 0.46

Home wins61%league 41%

Santa Clara4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

W25 Oct 25H · AVS2–01
D3 May 25A · SC Braga1–16
D5 Jan 25H · Farense0–03
L11 Mar 23A · Pacos Ferreira0–16

Benfica6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.5 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

D5 Dec 25H · Sporting CP1–13
D13 Apr 25H · Arouca2–21
L25 Jan 25A · Casa Pia1–30
W23 Dec 24H · Estoril3–01
L14 Aug 23A · Boavista2–35

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.