Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 22 Fri, Feb 13 · 18:30
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Santa Clara11.2%fair odds 8.94
Draw19.5%fair odds 5.13
Benfica69.3%fair odds 1.44
Expected goals0.75 – 2.16total 2.91
Likeliest score0–212.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Benfica
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Santa Clara ↓ · Benfica → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Santa Clara goals, columns Benfica goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–212.7%7.88
- 0–111.3%8.88
- 1–29.5%10.49
- 1–19.3%10.77
- 0–39.1%10.94
- 1–36.9%14.55
- 0–05.9%16.96
- 0–44.9%20.24
- 1–43.7%26.92
- 1–03.6%27.69
Winning margin
0.7%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 146.41
2.6%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 39.19
8.0%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 12.57
19.5%
Draw
fair 5.13
23.8%
Benfica by 1
fair 4.21
21.1%
Benfica by 2
fair 4.74
24.4%
Benfica by 3+
fair 4.09
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Santa Clara goals
47%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
Benfica goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 11.2% | 11.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 19.5% | 19.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Benfica win | 69.3% | 69.7% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 58.0% | -2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.2% | 49.0% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 0.75 | 0.79 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Benfica | 2.16 | 2.23 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Santa Clara win11.2%8.94
- Draw19.5%5.13
- Benfica win69.3%1.44
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw30.7%3.26
- Double chance Santa Clara or Benfica80.5%1.24
- Double chance Benfica or draw88.8%1.13
- Draw no bet Santa Clara13.9%7.19
- Draw no bet Benfica86.1%1.16
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.2%1.26
- Over 2.555.7%1.79
- Over 3.533.3%3.00
- Over 4.517.0%5.87
- Under 1.520.8%4.81
- Under 2.544.3%2.26
- Under 3.566.7%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes47.2%2.12
- No52.8%1.89
- Yes and over 2.537.9%2.64
- Santa Clara win and yes5.6%17.93
- Draw and yes13.6%7.36
- Benfica win and yes28.1%3.56
Team goals
- Santa Clara over 0.552.8%1.89
- Santa Clara over 1.517.4%5.75
- Santa Clara over 2.54.1%24.56
- Benfica over 0.588.5%1.13
- Benfica over 1.563.6%1.57
- Benfica over 2.536.7%2.72
- Santa Clara clean sheet11.5%8.69
- Benfica clean sheet47.2%2.12
- Santa Clara win to nil5.6%17.81
- Benfica win to nil41.3%2.42
Handicap
- Santa Clara −1.53.2%30.92
- Santa Clara −2.50.7%146.41
- Benfica +1.596.8%1.03
- Benfica +2.599.3%1.01
- Benfica −1.545.6%2.19
- Santa Clara +1.554.4%1.84
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored189
Favourite won61.4%
Avg chance given to result44.5%
1X2 Brier0.532
Over 2.5 called right58.2%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 37.7% | 48.6% |
| 40–50% | 63 | 44.8% | 50.8% |
| 50–60% | 36 | 54.5% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 26 | 65.4% | 80.8% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 75.3% | 77.3% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 83.9% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 160 of 189 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5274 | 0.5182 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.7% | 46.3% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 60.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 160 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 189 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.