Santa Clara vs Estoril – 31 Jan 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 31 · 15:30 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 14th · 17 pts · 19 played DLDLL

2–4Full time

Estoril 9th · 26 pts · 19 played WWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Santa Clara. Santa Clara had 7 days of rest, Estoril 6.8 and had to travel 1,424 km.

Away travel1,424 kmRest days7 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Santa Clara35%

Draw28%

Estoril37%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.31

Santa Clara34%

Draw27%

Estoril38%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.38

Santa Clara35%

Draw28%

Estoril37%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.31

Santa Clara28%

Draw27%

Estoril45%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.47

Santa Clara35%

Draw27%

Estoril38%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.37

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro

Cards per match 5.7
Penalties per match 0.48
Matches 52

Team strength

Santa Clara

Estoril

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

29 AttackIn forecast 21

53 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

Estoril

0.74 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.95

1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.62

53% Scored inContext 74%

26% Clean sheetsContext 16%

11.21 ShotsContext 11.89

3.59 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.21

29% On target shareContext 35%

6.37 Shots in the boxContext 7.74

55% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 16%

2.40 OffsidesContext 1.47

9.05 Shots allowedContext 11.84

3.72 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.61

2.17 BlocksContext 2.76

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

73% Save rateContext 61%

47% PossessionIn forecast 51%

367 PassesContext 416

295 Accurate passesContext 338

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.84

14.53 FoulsContext 12.53

14.89 Fouls sufferedContext 12.58

2.84 Yellow cardsContext 2.74

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +1.00

40% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.40 ShotsContext 12.50

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

25% On target shareContext 38%

5.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

47% Box shareContext 66%

6% ConversionContext 21%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.44

8.90 Shots allowedContext 11.30

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

2.43 BlocksContext 2.89

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

68% Save rateContext 63%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

354 PassesContext 448

281 Accurate passesContext 378

79% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.95

16.10 FoulsContext 12.30

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km3,074 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estoril

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,424 km31 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan	6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,424 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,074 km	31 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1Gabriel Batista(G)

94Henrique Silva 21F. Ferrão Venâncio 23Sidney Lima

42Lucas Soares 35Serginho 8Pedro Ferreira 2Diogo Calila

77Gustavo Klismahn 11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos

10Gabriel Silva

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Joel Robles(G)

24Pedro Amaral 44K. Boma 25F. Bacher 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 10J. Holsgrove 21Pizzi

9A. Marqués 99R. Guitane 14Y. Begraoui

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estoril+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 1.10points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-5
Scored: 0.70
Conceded: 0.80

Estoril · Away 0.89points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-5
Scored: 1.78
Conceded: 1.89

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Santa Clara	Estoril
Moreirense	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	D 3–3 H
Famalicao	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 0–4 A
Nacional	D 3–3 A	D 1–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Arouca	D 0–0 H	W 4–3 H
SC Braga	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Casa Pia	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 A
Rio Ave	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 A
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 H
GIL Vicente	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
AVS	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
Guimaraes	L 1–2 A	W 4–2 HL 2–3 A
Tondela	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
Alverca	W 2–1 H	W 4–1 H
Benfica	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 A
Estrela	D 0–0 H	W 5–0 AD 1–1 H
Points	14 of 54 · 0.78 per game	26 of 54 · 1.44 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Santa Clara wins0 draws2 Estoril wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.60 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

6 Sep 2025Estoril0–1Santa Clara
18 Jan 2025Santa Clara2–3Estoril
11 Aug 2024Estoril1–4Santa Clara
30 Apr 2023Estoril3–0Santa Clara
14 Nov 2022Santa Clara3–1Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	0.74	1.95
Conceded per game	1.11	1.63
Match goals	1.84	3.58	2.56
Over 1.5	47%	79%
Over 2.5	32%	63%	47%
Over 3.5	5%	63%
Both teams scored	37%	58%	53%
Clean sheets	26%	16%
Failed to score	47%	26%
Games	19	19

	Santa Clara	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	2.60
Conceded per game	1.10	1.70
Match goals	1.70	4.30	2.56
Over 1.5	30%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	80%	47%
Over 3.5	10%	80%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	4.47	4.53
Corners conceded	4.80	4.76
Match total	9.27	9.29	9.15
Over 8.5	67% 10/15	53% 9/17
Over 9.5	53% 8/15	53% 9/17
Over 10.5	33% 5/15	41% 7/17
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.74
Opponent cards	3.05	2.16
Match total	6.05	4.90	5.34
Over 3.5	84% 16/19	89% 17/19
Over 4.5	63% 12/19	63% 12/19

	Santa Clara	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	5.00
Corners conceded	4.89	4.22
Match total	9.33	9.22	9.15
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	3.20	2.10
Opponent cards	2.70	2.20
Match total	5.90	4.30	5.34
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.38league 4.99

Red cards0.33league 0.29

Cards 5+67%league 59%

Fouls29.3league 27.2

Penalties0.48league 0.47

Home wins48%league 40%

Santa Clara2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.6.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds3

L15 Feb 25H · Benfica0–16
L14 Aug 22A · Boavista1–27

Estoril4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3 Pens for · against2 · 1

D7 Dec 25H · Moreirense3–32
L30 Mar 25H · FC Porto1–24
W15 May 23H · Arouca2–01
W16 Jan 23H · Casa Pia2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.