Santa Clara vs FC Porto – 4 Jan 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 17 Sun, Jan 4 · 18:00 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 13th · 16 pts · 15 played LDWLD

0–1Full time

FC Porto 1st · 46 pts · 16 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were clear favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 25). FC Porto usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Santa Clara had 13.9 days of rest, FC Porto 5.9 and had to travel 1,510 km.

Away travel1,510 kmRest days13.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Santa Clara15%

Draw22%

FC Porto63%

Expected goals 0.85 – 1.96

Santa Clara15%

Draw22%

FC Porto63%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.01

Santa Clara15%

Draw22%

FC Porto63%

Expected goals 0.85 – 1.96

Santa Clara11%

Draw19%

FC Porto70%

Expected goals 0.76 – 2.20

Santa Clara15%

Draw22%

FC Porto63%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.01

Over 2.5 53% Both score 50% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 15

Team strength

Santa Clara

FC Porto

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

29 AttackIn forecast 74

53 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

FC Porto

0.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.19

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.25

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.48

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

60% Scored inContext 94%

33% Clean sheetsContext 75%

10.80 ShotsContext 14.88

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.69

33% On target shareContext 38%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.63

60% Box shareContext 70%

7% ConversionContext 15%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.14

9.40 Shots allowedContext 8.75

3.79 On target allowedVia Att/Def 1.93

2.10 BlocksContext 3.19

2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.92

76% Save rateContext 92%

47% PossessionIn forecast 57%

369 PassesContext 461

299 Accurate passesContext 394

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.01

13.80 FoulsContext 12.81

14.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.06

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 15 and 16 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.40

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.61

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

70% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 60%

10.60 ShotsContext 14.80

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

36% On target shareContext 41%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.90

58% Box shareContext 72%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.89

9.30 Shots allowedContext 8.60

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.38

2.00 BlocksContext 3.20

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29

73% Save rateContext 89%

48% PossessionIn forecast 59%

376 PassesContext 499

303 Accurate passesContext 427

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.02

14.00 FoulsContext 12.00

14.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

3.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Porto

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,510 km506 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec	5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,510 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	506 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	14.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1Gabriel Batista(G)

64Paulo Victor 94Henrique Silva 13Luís Rocha 23Sidney Lima 42Lucas Soares

70Vinícius Lopes 65José Tavares 6Adriano 8Pedro Ferreira

10Gabriel Silva

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 52Martim Fernandes

10Gabri Veiga 13P. Rosario 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 9Samu Omorodion 7William Gomes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 1.38points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-3
Scored: 0.88
Conceded: 0.75

FC Porto · Away 3.00points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 8-0-0
Scored: 2.38
Conceded: 0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 15 this season

Opponent	Santa Clara	FC Porto
Arouca	D 0–0 H	W 4–0 A
SC Braga	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Casa Pia	W 1–0 H	W 4–0 H
Rio Ave	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 A
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 A
GIL Vicente	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 A
AVS	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Guimaraes	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 H
Tondela	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 A
Alverca	W 2–1 H	W 3–0 A
Benfica	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Estoril	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Estrela	D 0–0 H	W 3–1 H
Moreirense	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
Famalicao	L 0–3 A	W 1–0 A
Points	16 of 45 · 1.07 per game	43 of 45 · 2.87 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Santa Clara wins2 draws2 FC Porto wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.50 Over 2.525% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

26 Jan 2025FC Porto1–1Santa Clara
16 Aug 2024Santa Clara0–2FC Porto
15 Apr 2023FC Porto2–1Santa Clara
29 Oct 2022Santa Clara1–1FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	0.73	2.19
Conceded per game	1.00	0.25
Match goals	1.73	2.44	2.81
Over 1.5	53%	75%
Over 2.5	33%	56%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	19%
Both teams scored	40%	25%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	75%
Failed to score	40%	6%
Games	15	16

	Santa Clara	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.40
Match goals	1.90	2.40	2.81
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	60%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	3.91	5.07
Corners conceded	5.09	3.00
Match total	9.00	8.07	9.19
Over 8.5	55% 6/11	43% 6/14
Over 9.5	45% 5/11	29% 4/14
Over 10.5	36% 4/11	21% 3/14
Cards
Cards	3.20	2.19
Opponent cards	3.13	2.75
Match total	6.33	4.94	5.40
Over 3.5	87% 13/15	75% 12/16
Over 4.5	67% 10/15	50% 8/16

	Santa Clara	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	3.86
Corners conceded	5.63	2.71
Match total	9.13	6.57	9.19
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	14% 1/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	0% 0/7
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	3.70	1.70
Opponent cards	3.20	2.70
Match total	6.90	4.40	5.40
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.07league 5.07

Red cards0.27league 0.29

Cards 5+53%league 60%

Fouls28.4league 27.2

Penalties0.40league 0.44

Home wins27%league 38%

Santa Clara1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W17 May 25A · Farense2–15

FC Porto1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W11 May 25A · Boavista2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.