Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 17 Sun, Jan 4 · 18:00
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Santa Clara14.9%fair odds 6.69
Draw22.1%fair odds 4.52
FC Porto63.0%fair odds 1.59
Expected goals0.85 – 1.96total 2.81
Likeliest score0–211.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Santa Clara ↓ · FC Porto → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Santa Clara goals, columns FC Porto goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.6%8.64
- 0–111.3%8.88
- 1–110.5%9.49
- 1–29.8%10.17
- 0–37.6%13.19
- 0–06.5%15.31
- 1–36.4%15.54
- 1–04.6%21.91
- 2–14.2%23.54
- 2–24.2%23.96
Winning margin
1.1%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 88.70
3.6%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 27.43
10.2%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 9.83
22.1%
Draw
fair 4.52
24.2%
FC Porto by 1
fair 4.13
19.5%
FC Porto by 2
fair 5.12
19.2%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 5.21
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Santa Clara goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
FC Porto goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 14.9% | 15.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 22.1% | 21.8% | +0.3 pp |
| FC Porto win | 63.0% | 62.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 55.4% | -2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.7% | 51.6% | -1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 0.85 | 0.89 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 1.96 | 2.01 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Santa Clara win14.9%6.69
- Draw22.1%4.52
- FC Porto win63.0%1.59
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw37.0%2.70
- Double chance Santa Clara or FC Porto77.9%1.28
- Double chance FC Porto or draw85.1%1.18
- Draw no bet Santa Clara19.2%5.21
- Draw no bet FC Porto80.8%1.24
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.577.7%1.29
- Over 2.553.4%1.87
- Over 3.531.1%3.21
- Over 4.515.4%6.48
- Under 1.522.3%4.47
- Under 2.546.6%2.14
- Under 3.568.9%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes49.7%2.01
- No50.3%1.99
- Yes and over 2.539.2%2.55
- Santa Clara win and yes7.5%13.42
- Draw and yes15.6%6.42
- FC Porto win and yes26.7%3.74
Team goals
- Santa Clara over 0.557.2%1.75
- Santa Clara over 1.520.9%4.79
- Santa Clara over 2.55.5%18.27
- FC Porto over 0.586.0%1.16
- FC Porto over 1.558.4%1.71
- FC Porto over 2.531.4%3.19
- Santa Clara clean sheet14.0%7.13
- FC Porto clean sheet42.8%2.34
- Santa Clara win to nil7.5%13.34
- FC Porto win to nil36.3%2.76
Handicap
- Santa Clara −1.54.8%20.95
- Santa Clara −2.51.1%88.70
- FC Porto +1.595.2%1.05
- FC Porto +2.598.9%1.01
- FC Porto −1.538.7%2.58
- Santa Clara +1.561.3%1.63
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored149
Favourite won57.7%
Avg chance given to result43.5%
1X2 Brier0.547
Over 2.5 called right60.4%
BTTS called right56.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 37.7% | 36.0% |
| 40–50% | 54 | 44.9% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 31 | 54.4% | 58.1% |
| 60–70% | 18 | 66.0% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 75.6% | 76.5% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 85.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 120 of 149 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5449 | 0.5263 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.7% | 45.8% |
| Favourite won | 58.3% | 58.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 120 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 149 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.