Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 27 Sat, Mar 21 · 18:00
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
It was too close to call.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for GIL Vicente. Santa Clara had 6.1 days of rest, GIL Vicente 7 and had to travel 1,517 km.
Away travel1,517 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Santa Clara33%
Draw29%
GIL Vicente38%
Santa Clara35%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente38%
Santa Clara33%
Draw29%
GIL Vicente38%
Santa Clara27%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente45%
Santa Clara34%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente38%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 18
Team strength
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
29
AttackIn forecast
32
53
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraGIL Vicente
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.04
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
62%
Scored inContext
81%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.54
ShotsContext
13.88
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.73
28%
On target shareContext
34%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.88
55%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.32
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.31
Shots allowedContext
9.96
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
2.53
BlocksContext
2.29
2.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
365
PassesContext
364
294
Accurate passesContext
295
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.85
FoulsContext
13.54
14.15
Fouls sufferedContext
14.15
2.85
Yellow cardsContext
2.35
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
14.60
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
24%
On target shareContext
39%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
52%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.13
9.30
Shots allowedContext
10.40
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.13
BlocksContext
2.10
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
57%
Save rateContext
57%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
366
PassesContext
380
295
Accurate passesContext
313
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.76
15.90
FoulsContext
12.60
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,517 km626 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,517 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 626 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.1 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
5Guilherme Romão
94Henrique Silva
23Sidney Lima
42Lucas Soares
77Gustavo Klismahn
8Pedro Ferreira
35Serginho
10Gabriel Silva
26Fernando
49Welinton
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
20Hevertton Santos
5F. Cáseres
6Zé Carlos
27Agustín Moreira
10Luís Esteves
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
1.08points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-7
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.08
GIL Vicente · Away
1.38points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-3
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.15
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Santa Clara | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Tondela | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Alverca | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 HW 4–0 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Estrela | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Estoril | L 2–4 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Nacional | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Arouca | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Casa Pia | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 25 of 75 · 1.00 per game | 39 of 75 · 1.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Santa Clara wins0 draws2 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 3 Nov 2025GIL Vicente1–0Santa Clara
- 15 Mar 2025GIL Vicente0–1Santa Clara
- 25 Oct 2024Santa Clara2–1GIL Vicente
- 6 May 2023Santa Clara3–2GIL Vicente
- 29 Dec 2022GIL Vicente1–0Santa Clara
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.04 | |
| Match goals | 2.08 | 2.54 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 54% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 19% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Santa Clara | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 90% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.32 | 5.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.55 | 4.41 | |
| Match total | 8.87 | 10.00 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 13/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 9/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.92 | 2.58 | |
| Match total | 5.92 | 5.08 | 5.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 85% 22/26 | 73% 19/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 17/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Santa Clara | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.67 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.90 | 5.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.89league 4.84
Red cards0.22league 0.27
Cards 5+50%league 59%
Fouls28.4league 27.0
Penalties0.33league 0.44
Home wins28%league 41%
Santa Clara2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Jan 26H · FC Porto0–12
- W17 May 25A · Farense2–15
GIL Vicente2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W14 Feb 26H · SC Braga2–12
- L29 Nov 25H · Tondela0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Santa Clara26 games · scored 23 · conceded 31
9
5
0-15
5
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
5
61-75
7
4
76-90
GIL Vicente26 games · scored 39 · conceded 27
7
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
12
5
31-45
6
4
46-60
4
6
61-75
9
4
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
5
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
