Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 27 Sat, Mar 21 · 18:00
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Santa Clara33.2%fair odds 3.01
Draw28.7%fair odds 3.49
GIL Vicente38.1%fair odds 2.62
Expected goals1.17 – 1.28total 2.45
Likeliest score1–113.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
GIL Vicente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Santa Clara ↓ · GIL Vicente → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Santa Clara goals, columns GIL Vicente goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.6%7.34
- 0–110.3%9.67
- 1–09.5%10.57
- 0–09.3%10.71
- 1–28.2%12.13
- 2–17.6%13.19
- 0–27.0%14.22
- 2–05.9%16.81
- 2–24.8%20.68
- 1–33.5%28.54
Winning margin
4.5%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 22.23
9.5%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 10.50
19.2%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 5.21
28.7%
Draw
fair 3.49
20.9%
GIL Vicente by 1
fair 4.78
11.3%
GIL Vicente by 2
fair 8.88
5.9%
GIL Vicente by 3+
fair 16.81
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Santa Clara goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
GIL Vicente goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 33.2% | 33.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 28.7% | 27.9% | +0.8 pp |
| GIL Vicente win | 38.1% | 38.5% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.3% | 47.3% | -3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.4% | 52.8% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 1.17 | 1.23 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals GIL Vicente | 1.28 | 1.33 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Santa Clara win33.2%3.01
- Draw28.7%3.49
- GIL Vicente win38.1%2.62
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw61.9%1.62
- Double chance Santa Clara or GIL Vicente71.3%1.40
- Double chance GIL Vicente or draw66.8%1.50
- Draw no bet Santa Clara46.6%2.15
- Draw no bet GIL Vicente53.4%1.87
Goals
- Over 0.590.7%1.10
- Over 1.570.9%1.41
- Over 2.544.3%2.26
- Over 3.523.1%4.32
- Over 4.510.2%9.81
- Under 1.529.1%3.43
- Under 2.555.7%1.79
- Under 3.576.9%1.30
Both teams to score
- Yes50.4%1.98
- No49.6%2.02
- Yes and over 2.536.8%2.72
- Santa Clara win and yes14.6%6.85
- Draw and yes19.3%5.17
- GIL Vicente win and yes16.5%6.06
Team goals
- Santa Clara over 0.569.1%1.45
- Santa Clara over 1.532.8%3.05
- Santa Clara over 2.511.5%8.72
- GIL Vicente over 0.572.1%1.39
- GIL Vicente over 1.536.4%2.74
- GIL Vicente over 2.513.7%7.29
- Santa Clara clean sheet27.9%3.58
- GIL Vicente clean sheet30.9%3.23
- Santa Clara win to nil18.6%5.37
- GIL Vicente win to nil21.6%4.63
Handicap
- Santa Clara −1.514.0%7.13
- Santa Clara −2.54.5%22.23
- GIL Vicente +1.586.0%1.16
- GIL Vicente +2.595.5%1.05
- GIL Vicente −1.517.2%5.81
- Santa Clara +1.582.8%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored235
Favourite won58.7%
Avg chance given to result44.2%
1X2 Brier0.535
Over 2.5 called right58.3%
BTTS called right55.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 46 | 37.7% | 41.3% |
| 40–50% | 77 | 44.5% | 48.1% |
| 50–60% | 47 | 54.6% | 57.4% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 65.2% | 83.9% |
| 70–80% | 26 | 75.3% | 80.8% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 183 of 235 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5165 | 0.5038 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.3% | 47.1% |
| Favourite won | 62.8% | 61.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 183 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Famalicao 1–0 Nacional53·27·20
- ✗Moreirense 0–1 Arouca37·28·35
- ✗Estrela 4–0 Casa Pia34·29·37
- ✓FC Porto 3–0 Moreirense75·17·7
- ✓Rio Ave 2–1 Estrela45·29·25
- ✓AVS 0–1 Santa Clara29·31·40
- ✗Nacional 0–1 Estoril38·28·34
- ✓Arouca 1–2 Benfica16·23·61
- ✗GIL Vicente 2–2 Alverca59·24·17
- ✗Guimaraes 1–2 Famalicao41·28·31
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 235 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.