Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were slight favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Sassuolo had 8.8 days of rest, Atalanta 7 and had to travel 134 km.
Away travel134 kmRest days8.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sassuolo22%
Draw26%
Atalanta52%
Sassuolo21%
Draw25%
Atalanta54%
Sassuolo22%
Draw26%
Atalanta52%
Sassuolo17%
Draw24%
Atalanta60%
Sassuolo22%
Draw25%
Atalanta53%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 51
Team strength
Sassuolo
Atalanta
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
41
AttackIn forecast
48
32
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloAtalanta
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.85
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
65%
Scored inContext
81%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
10.69
ShotsContext
14.19
3.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.88
35%
On target shareContext
32%
6.96
Shots in the boxContext
9.31
66%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.23
OffsidesContext
2.26
13.65
Shots allowedContext
11.69
4.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.35
BlocksContext
3.29
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.46
71%
Save rateContext
81%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
386
PassesContext
470
319
Accurate passesContext
398
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.92
FoulsContext
10.96
13.35
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
1.65
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.90
ShotsContext
13.10
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
35%
On target shareContext
39%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
69%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.20
Shots allowedContext
12.30
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.00
BlocksContext
3.44
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
70%
Save rateContext
86%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
388
PassesContext
470
321
Accurate passesContext
394
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.10
FoulsContext
11.50
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atalanta
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel134 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Feb | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 134 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
23U. Garcia
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
25W. Coulibaly
42K. Thorstvedt
18N. Matić
90I. Koné
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
23S. Kolašinac
19B. Djimsiti
42G. Scalvini
47L. Bernasconi
8M. Pašalić
15M. de Roon
16R. Bellanova
59N. Zalewski
10L. Samardžić
9G. Scamacca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atalanta
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Atalanta+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
1.31points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-6
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.46
Atalanta · Away
1.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Udinese | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Pisa | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Parma | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Bologna | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Como | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | W 4–1 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 32 of 75 · 1.28 per game | 45 of 75 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Sassuolo wins0 draws4 Atalanta wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.43
Over 2.571%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets29% · 29%
- 9 Nov 2025Atalanta0–3Sassuolo
- 17 Feb 2024Atalanta3–0Sassuolo
- 20 Aug 2023Sassuolo0–2Atalanta
- 4 Feb 2023Sassuolo1–0Atalanta
- 15 Oct 2022Atalanta2–1Sassuolo
- 10 Apr 2022Sassuolo2–1Atalanta
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 0.85 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 2.23 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 35% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 19% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Sassuolo | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.62 | 5.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.54 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 8.16 | 10.28 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 9/26 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 4/26 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 1.38 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 3.11 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 17/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 10/26 | 8% 2/26 | |
| Sassuolo | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.11 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.77
Red cards0.22league 0.19
Cards 5+43%league 37%
Fouls25.2league 25.3
Penalties0.25league 0.31
Home wins39%league 38%
Sassuolo4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L28 Nov 25A · Como0–21
- W4 May 24H · Inter1–01
- L20 Aug 23H · Atalanta0–20
- L2 Jun 23H · Fiorentina1–35
Atalanta4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D16 Jan 26A · Pisa1–12
- D15 Feb 25H · Cagliari0–01
- L30 Aug 24A · Inter0–42
- W20 Aug 23A · Sassuolo2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo26 games · scored 32 · conceded 35
7
7
0-15
2
6
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
8
46-60
9
4
61-75
4
7
76-90
Atalanta26 games · scored 36 · conceded 22
6
1
0-15
3
6
16-30
8
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
9
6
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
