Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sassuolo were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Sassuolo. Sassuolo had 7.8 days of rest, Cremonese 5.8 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days7.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Sassuolo44%
Draw28%
Cremonese28%
Sassuolo47%
Draw26%
Cremonese27%
Sassuolo46%
Draw28%
Cremonese26%
Sassuolo37%
Draw29%
Cremonese34%
Sassuolo46%
Draw26%
Cremonese28%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiuseppe Collu
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 18
Team strength
Sassuolo
Cremonese
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
41
AttackIn forecast
16
32
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloCremonese
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.95
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
62%
Scored inContext
57%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.48
ShotsContext
8.29
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.05
35%
On target shareContext
37%
6.52
Shots in the boxContext
4.95
63%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.06
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.71
Shots allowedContext
16.10
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.38
3.10
BlocksContext
4.75
3.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
73%
Save rateContext
77%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
392
PassesContext
374
322
Accurate passesContext
293
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.29
FoulsContext
12.86
13.48
Fouls sufferedContext
12.57
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
50%
Scored inContext
40%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.10
ShotsContext
8.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
34%
On target shareContext
34%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
65%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.00
Shots allowedContext
16.60
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
2.90
BlocksContext
5.00
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
70%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
407
PassesContext
378
338
Accurate passesContext
294
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.50
FoulsContext
14.00
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,041 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel68 km367 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,041 km | 367 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
90I. Koné
18N. Matić
35L. Lipani
45A. Laurienté
24L. Moro
20A. Fadera
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
27J. Vandeputte
33A. Grassi
18M. Collocolo
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Cremonese+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
1.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.40
Cremonese · Away
1.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Juventus | L 0–3 H | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Parma | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Bologna | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Como | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Verona | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Udinese | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Inter | L 1–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 23 of 60 · 1.15 per game | 20 of 60 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Sassuolo wins1 draws1 Cremonese wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 29 Aug 2025Cremonese3–2Sassuolo
- 6 Mar 2023Sassuolo3–2Cremonese
- 4 Sep 2022Cremonese0–0Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.29 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 38% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 48% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 43% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Sassuolo | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.52 | 6.25 | |
| Match total | 7.85 | 9.65 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 7/21 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 2/21 | 25% 5/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 14/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 7/21 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Sassuolo | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 10.56 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Collu 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 3.81
Red cards0.06league 0.16
Cards 5+28%league 36%
Fouls23.9league 25.6
Penalties0.28league 0.30
Home wins44%league 37%
SassuoloNo previous matches with this referee.
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Aug 25A · AC Milan2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo21 games · scored 23 · conceded 28
6
5
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
8
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Cremonese21 games · scored 20 · conceded 28
3
5
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
7
61-75
6
3
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
4
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
