Sassuolo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sassuolo40.8%fair odds 2.45
Draw28.9%fair odds 3.45
Parma30.2%fair odds 3.31
Expected goals1.30 – 1.08total 2.38
Likeliest score1–113.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Parma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sassuolo ↓ · Parma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sassuolo goals, columns Parma goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.7%7.31
- 1–011.3%8.84
- 0–09.9%10.08
- 0–19.3%10.75
- 2–18.4%11.84
- 2–07.8%12.81
- 1–27.0%14.23
- 0–25.4%18.50
- 2–24.6%21.88
- 3–13.7%27.31
Winning margin
6.7%
Sassuolo by 3+
fair 15.02
12.2%
Sassuolo by 2
fair 8.21
22.0%
Sassuolo by 1
fair 4.55
28.9%
Draw
fair 3.45
18.2%
Parma by 1
fair 5.50
8.4%
Parma by 2
fair 11.86
3.6%
Parma by 3+
fair 27.72
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
21%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Sassuolo goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Parma goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 40.8% | 42.0% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 28.9% | 27.0% | +2.0 pp |
| Parma win | 30.2% | 31.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.6% | 50.3% | -7.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.8% | 54.9% | -6.1 pp |
| Expected goals Sassuolo | 1.30 | 1.46 | -0.16 |
| Expected goals Parma | 1.08 | 1.23 | -0.14 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sassuolo win40.8%2.45
- Draw28.9%3.45
- Parma win30.2%3.31
- Double chance Sassuolo or draw69.8%1.43
- Double chance Sassuolo or Parma71.1%1.41
- Double chance Parma or draw59.2%1.69
- Draw no bet Sassuolo57.5%1.74
- Draw no bet Parma42.5%2.35
Goals
- Over 0.590.1%1.11
- Over 1.569.5%1.44
- Over 2.542.6%2.35
- Over 3.521.8%4.59
- Over 4.59.4%10.67
- Under 1.530.5%3.28
- Under 2.557.4%1.74
- Under 3.578.2%1.28
Both teams to score
- Yes48.8%2.05
- No51.2%1.95
- Yes and over 2.535.1%2.85
- Sassuolo win and yes16.9%5.93
- Draw and yes19.0%5.25
- Parma win and yes12.9%7.75
Team goals
- Sassuolo over 0.572.8%1.37
- Sassuolo over 1.537.3%2.68
- Sassuolo over 2.514.3%6.99
- Parma over 0.566.1%1.51
- Parma over 1.529.4%3.40
- Parma over 2.59.6%10.42
- Sassuolo clean sheet33.9%2.95
- Parma clean sheet27.2%3.67
- Sassuolo win to nil24.0%4.17
- Parma win to nil17.3%5.77
Handicap
- Sassuolo −1.518.8%5.31
- Sassuolo −2.56.7%15.02
- Parma +1.581.2%1.23
- Parma +2.593.3%1.07
- Parma −1.512.0%8.31
- Sassuolo +1.588.0%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored168
Favourite won49.4%
Avg chance given to result40.1%
1X2 Brier0.610
Over 2.5 called right56.0%
BTTS called right48.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 37.9% | 36.0% |
| 40–50% | 56 | 44.8% | 48.2% |
| 50–60% | 39 | 54.7% | 38.5% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 64.5% | 67.7% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 72.9% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 147 of 168 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6057 | 0.5883 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.1% | 40.5% |
| Favourite won | 49.0% | 49.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 147 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 168 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.