Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sassuolo were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Sassuolo had 5.9 days of rest, Parma 7.1 and had to travel 27 km.
Away travel27 kmRest days5.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Sassuolo41%
Draw29%
Parma30%
Sassuolo42%
Draw27%
Parma31%
Sassuolo41%
Draw29%
Parma30%
Sassuolo34%
Draw29%
Parma37%
Sassuolo42%
Draw27%
Parma31%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 34
Team strength
Sassuolo
Parma
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
41
AttackIn forecast
20
32
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloParma
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.69
1.24
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
71%
Scored inContext
50%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
10.41
ShotsContext
11.00
3.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
37%
On target shareContext
27%
6.76
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
65%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.58
12.88
Shots allowedContext
14.06
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
2.88
BlocksContext
4.13
3.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.06
72%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
383
PassesContext
324
313
Accurate passesContext
252
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.82
FoulsContext
10.63
14.06
Fouls sufferedContext
13.88
2.47
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.20
ShotsContext
10.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
35%
On target shareContext
28%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
68%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.30
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.50
BlocksContext
4.22
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
65%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
391
PassesContext
310
321
Accurate passesContext
238
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.40
FoulsContext
10.00
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km121 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel27 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Dec | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 27 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 121 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
35L. Lipani
18N. Matić
42K. Thorstvedt
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
20A. Fadera
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
14E. Valeri
5L. Valenti
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
22O. Sørensen
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
17J. Ondrejka
9Mateo Pellegrino
21G. Oristanio
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Parma+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
1.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Parma · Away
1.14points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Torino | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Como | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Udinese | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | L 2–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 22 of 45 · 1.47 per game | 17 of 45 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.24 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 1.81 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 31% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 38% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 50% | |
| Games | 17 | 16 |
| Sassuolo | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 1.90 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.24 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.53 | 8.50 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 8/17 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 5/17 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 6% 1/17 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.59 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 4.65 | 4.00 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 13/17 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 6/17 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Sassuolo | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.76 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.20 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.18league 3.90
Red cards0.03league 0.16
Cards 5+18%league 39%
Fouls22.9league 26.0
Penalties0.24league 0.30
Home wins56%league 39%
Sassuolo2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L3 Nov 25H · Genoa1–21
- L5 Nov 22A · Empoli0–10
Parma1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Jan 25A · Torino0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo17 games · scored 22 · conceded 21
5
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
8
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Parma16 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
