SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 26). SC Braga usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. SC Braga had 3.2 days of rest, Casa Pia 23.1 and had to travel.
Rest days3.2 · 23.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
SC Braga66%
Draw21%
Casa Pia13%
SC Braga66%
Draw20%
Casa Pia13%
SC Braga66%
Draw21%
Casa Pia13%
SC Braga59%
Draw24%
Casa Pia17%
SC Braga66%
Draw20%
Casa Pia13%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 30
Team strength
SC Braga
Casa Pia
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
42
AttackIn forecast
13
59
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaCasa Pia
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
75%
Scored inContext
63%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.00
ShotsContext
9.63
5.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
40%
On target shareContext
31%
7.86
Shots in the boxContext
5.29
58%
Box shareContext
52%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
8.75
Shots allowedContext
13.13
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
2.13
BlocksContext
3.63
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
70%
Save rateContext
63%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
594
PassesContext
322
514
Accurate passesContext
245
87%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.13
FoulsContext
15.00
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
15.63
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.60
ShotsContext
8.70
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
39%
On target shareContext
32%
8.43
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
59%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.33
8.10
Shots allowedContext
14.40
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.38
BlocksContext
3.90
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
541
PassesContext
322
460
Accurate passesContext
245
85%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.50
FoulsContext
15.30
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Casa Pia
Rest23.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 23.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
14G. Lagerbielke
2Víctor Gómez
5Leonardo Lelo
50D. Rodrigues
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
20M. Dorgeles
21Ricardo Horta
9A. El Ouazzani
10R. Zalazar
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
22Daniel Azevedo(G)
43David Sousa
27Kaique Rocha
4João Goulart
18André Geraldes
42S. Pérez
74Renato Nhaga
72Gaizka Larrazabal
14Miguel Sousa
10Dailon Livramento
29J. Livolant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Casa Pia · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Nacional | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| AVS | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 SC Braga wins0 draws3 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 10 May 2025Casa Pia2–1SC Braga
- 29 Dec 2024SC Braga1–2Casa Pia
- 5 May 2024SC Braga4–3Casa Pia
- 30 Dec 2023Casa Pia1–3SC Braga
- 21 Apr 2023Casa Pia0–1SC Braga
- 6 Nov 2022SC Braga0–1Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.63 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| SC Braga | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.63 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 38% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 38% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 38% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.71 | 5.71 | |
| Match total | 8.71 | 9.71 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.88 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 6.13 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| SC Braga | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.34 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.70 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 5.20
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+50%league 65%
Fouls29.5league 27.8
Penalties0.33league 0.46
Home wins47%league 37%
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
Casa Pia9 with this referee
Record2-4-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against4 · 1
- D9 Nov 24H · Farense1–14
- D28 Sep 24H · Guimaraes1–12
- L11 Feb 24A · Rio Ave0–13
- L20 Jan 24H · Farense1–30
- D21 May 23H · Estoril2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga8 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
46-60
61-75
4
76-90
Casa Pia8 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
