SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 21). SC Braga usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. SC Braga had 3.9 days of rest, Nacional 8.1 and had to travel 1,239 km.
Away travel1,239 kmRest days3.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
SC Braga70%
Draw19%
Nacional11%
SC Braga70%
Draw19%
Nacional11%
SC Braga70%
Draw19%
Nacional11%
SC Braga63%
Draw22%
Nacional15%
SC Braga70%
Draw19%
Nacional11%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
- Cards per match 7.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
SC Braga
Nacional
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
42
AttackIn forecast
15
59
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaNacional
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
83%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
14.50
ShotsContext
9.67
6.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
43%
On target shareContext
35%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
60%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.80
7.67
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
1.67
BlocksContext
4.50
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
69%
Save rateContext
65%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
603
PassesContext
254
527
Accurate passesContext
181
87%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.70
9.67
FoulsContext
16.67
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.72
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.00
ShotsContext
11.20
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
43%
On target shareContext
31%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
60%
Box shareContext
55%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.33
6.33
Shots allowedContext
12.70
2.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
1.67
BlocksContext
3.70
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
78%
Save rateContext
58%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
571
PassesContext
276
496
Accurate passesContext
206
87%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.71
9.78
FoulsContext
15.20
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km32 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Nacional
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,239 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,239 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 32 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
4S. Niakaté
14G. Lagerbielke
5Leonardo Lelo
8João Moutinho
17Gabriel Moscardo
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
10R. Zalazar
39Fran Navarro
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
4Ulisses
2João Aurélio
11Paulinho Bóia
15C. Labidi
28Liziero
99Pablo Ruan
9J. Ramírez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Nacional · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 SC Braga wins0 draws0 Nacional wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 21 Feb 2025SC Braga1–0Nacional
- 20 Sep 2024Nacional0–3SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.50 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| SC Braga | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.50 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 33% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 33% | |
| Games | 7 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 11.33 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 6.00 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| SC Braga | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.86 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.86 | 10.10 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.40 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca Portugal · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards7.00league 5.03
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+100%league 62%
Fouls33.0league 28.3
Penalties0.00league 0.43
Home wins0%league 37%
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga6 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Nacional6 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 23 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
46-60
61-75
8
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
