SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
8th · 40 pts · 29 played
DLWLW
2–1Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 19 pts · 29 played
LLDDW
Our take
SC Freiburg were clear favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 26). SC Freiburg had 2.9 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 8 and had to travel 186 km.
Away travel186 kmRest days2.9 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1
SC Freiburg70%
Draw18%
1. FC Heidenheim12%
SC Freiburg67%
Draw20%
1. FC Heidenheim13%
SC Freiburg69%
Draw19%
1. FC Heidenheim12%
SC Freiburg62%
Draw21%
1. FC Heidenheim16%
SC Freiburg69%
Draw19%
1. FC Heidenheim12%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
RefereePatrick Ittrich
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 46
Team strength
SC Freiburg1. FC Heidenheim
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
63
AttackIn forecast
48
73
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC Freiburg1. FC Heidenheim
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.21
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
72%
Scored inContext
62%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.38
ShotsContext
10.90
4.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.59
35%
On target shareContext
31%
8.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.41
67%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.31
Shots allowedContext
14.69
4.59
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.45
4.31
BlocksContext
3.75
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
67%
Save rateContext
60%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
398
PassesContext
354
325
Accurate passesContext
274
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.10
FoulsContext
9.72
11.41
Fouls sufferedContext
10.31
1.69
Yellow cardsContext
1.48
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.70
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
44%
On target shareContext
31%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
69%
Box shareContext
71%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.80
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.80
BlocksContext
3.67
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
72%
Save rateContext
59%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
401
PassesContext
347
336
Accurate passesContext
268
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.30
FoulsContext
8.80
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,338 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel186 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 16 Apr | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 186 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,338 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
9L. Höler
7D. Scherhant
31I. Matanović
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
26Hennes Behrens
19J. Föhrenbach
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
16J. Niehues
17M. Honsak
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
22A. Ibrahimović
18M. Pieringer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
1.79points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-3
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.36
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.36points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-11
- Scored
- 0.79
- Conceded
- 2.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 HL 2–6 A | L 0–4 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A | D 3–3 HL 0–6 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 2–2 AL 0–3 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 2–4 HL 1–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A | D 2–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–3 A | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 40 of 84 · 1.43 per game | 16 of 84 · 0.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 SC Freiburg wins1 draws2 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 6 Dec 20251. FC Heidenheim2–1SC Freiburg
- 8 Feb 2025SC Freiburg1–01. FC Heidenheim
- 21 Sep 20241. FC Heidenheim0–3SC Freiburg
- 11 May 2024SC Freiburg1–11. FC Heidenheim
- 20 Dec 20231. FC Heidenheim3–2SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 2.21 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 3.31 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 69% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 62% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 38% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| SC Freiburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 9.24 | 9.29 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 13/25 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 12/25 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 7/25 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 1.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.17 | 3.52 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 15/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 12/29 | 34% 10/29 | |
| SC Freiburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 8.90 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.90 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Patrick Ittrich 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.75
Red cards0.07league 0.18
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls24.7league 20.4
Penalties0.35league 0.37
Home wins50%league 44%
SC Freiburg3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.0.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L12 Nov 23A · RB Leipzig1–30
- L27 Nov 21A · VfL Bochum1–21
- W2 Oct 21A · Hertha BSC2–10
1. FC Heidenheim4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W29 Nov 25A · Union Berlin2–12
- D18 Oct 25H · Werder Bremen2–21
- D13 Apr 24A · VfL Bochum1–11
- W17 Sep 23H · Werder Bremen4–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg29 games · scored 42 · conceded 47
7
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
7
9
31-45
9
15
46-60
7
3
61-75
10
12
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim29 games · scored 32 · conceded 64
2
3
0-15
4
10
16-30
5
15
31-45
6
12
46-60
6
11
61-75
9
13
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 15 · conceded 22
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
