SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Freiburg were clear favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 37). SC Freiburg had 2.9 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 8.1 and had to travel 333 km.
Away travel333 kmRest days2.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
SC Freiburg61%
Draw21%
1.FC Köln18%
SC Freiburg58%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln19%
SC Freiburg60%
Draw22%
1.FC Köln18%
SC Freiburg53%
Draw23%
1.FC Köln24%
SC Freiburg59%
Draw23%
1.FC Köln18%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 72
Team strength
SC Freiburg
1.FC Köln
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
63
AttackIn forecast
36
73
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC Freiburg1.FC Köln
1.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
78%
Scored inContext
83%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
12.67
ShotsContext
12.00
4.28
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
34%
On target shareContext
37%
9.19
Shots in the boxContext
7.82
66%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.21
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.78
4.28
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.18
4.00
BlocksContext
4.18
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.47
62%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
425
PassesContext
408
350
Accurate passesContext
334
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.78
FoulsContext
8.06
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.06
1.72
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.70
ShotsContext
12.50
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
40%
12.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
66%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
4.80
BlocksContext
3.22
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
80%
Save rateContext
63%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
455
PassesContext
436
379
Accurate passesContext
362
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.70
FoulsContext
7.20
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,447 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
1.FC Köln
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel333 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 333 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,447 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
29P. Treu
37M. Rosenfelder
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
33R. van den Berg
28S. Sebulonsen
17A. Castro-Montes
37L. Maina
16J. Kamiński
5T. Krauß
29J. Thielmann
30M. Bülter
9R. Ache
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- 1.FC Köln-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
1.88points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
1.FC Köln · Away
1.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–3 A | D 3–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–6 A | L 1–3 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 2–2 H | L 3–4 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 24 of 51 · 1.41 per game | 17 of 51 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 SC Freiburg wins2 draws2 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.86
Over 2.514%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets57% · 29%
- 31 Aug 20251.FC Köln4–1SC Freiburg
- 4 May 20241.FC Köln0–0SC Freiburg
- 17 Dec 2023SC Freiburg2–01.FC Köln
- 29 Apr 20231.FC Köln0–1SC Freiburg
- 6 Nov 2022SC Freiburg2–01.FC Köln
- 5 Feb 20221.FC Köln1–0SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.61 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.72 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 3.17 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 72% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 17% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| SC Freiburg | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.40 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 4.24 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 6.29 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 10.53 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 7/14 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 4/14 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.72 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.89 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 10/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 8/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| SC Freiburg | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.67 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 3.74
Red cards0.17league 0.18
Cards 5+32%league 38%
Fouls23.9league 21.0
Penalties0.22league 0.32
Home wins47%league 44%
SC Freiburg7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D28 Sep 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–13
- W19 Oct 24H · FC Augsburg3–11
- L25 Feb 24A · FC Augsburg1–21
- W19 May 23H · VfL Wolfsburg2–02
- D19 Mar 23A · FSV Mainz 051–13
1.FC Köln5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D29 Nov 25A · Werder Bremen1–14
- D13 Sep 25A · VfL Wolfsburg3–33
- L23 Sep 23A · Werder Bremen1–21
- D18 Sep 22A · VfL Bochum1–11
- W19 Dec 21H · VfB Stuttgart1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg18 games · scored 29 · conceded 31
5
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
7
12
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
1.FC Köln18 games · scored 27 · conceded 30
3
2
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
7
31-45
6
2
46-60
8
61-75
12
7
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
7
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
