SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
8th · 37 pts · 27 played
WLDLW
2–3Full time
Bayern München
1st · 70 pts · 27 played
WWWDW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 56). Bayern München usually keep the ball (66% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. SC Freiburg had 12.9 days of rest, Bayern München 14 and had to travel 277 km.
Away travel277 kmRest days12.9 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
SC Freiburg12%
Draw15%
Bayern München72%
SC Freiburg13%
Draw20%
Bayern München66%
SC Freiburg11%
Draw15%
Bayern München74%
SC Freiburg8%
Draw12%
Bayern München79%
SC Freiburg13%
Draw18%
Bayern München69%
Over 2.5 77%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 122
Team strength
SC FreiburgBayern München
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
63
AttackIn forecast
96
73
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgBayern München
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.59
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.93
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
2.72
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.87
70%
Scored inContext
100%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
12.59
ShotsContext
18.52
4.37
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.33
35%
On target shareContext
45%
9.04
Shots in the boxContext
12.89
66%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
19%
2.39
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.19
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.65
4.33
BlocksContext
3.30
2.96
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.05
66%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
406
PassesContext
684
332
Accurate passesContext
617
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.20
8.96
FoulsContext
8.96
11.41
Fouls sufferedContext
8.74
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
3.25
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
50%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
19.90
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.00
38%
On target shareContext
45%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.50
67%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.20
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.80
BlocksContext
3.20
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
68%
Save rateContext
72%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
370
PassesContext
657
300
Accurate passesContext
597
81%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.28
8.30
FoulsContext
9.10
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,271 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel277 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 277 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,271 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
9L. Höler
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
20T. Bischof
4J. Tah
3M. Kim
44J. Stanišić
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
22R. Guerreiro
42Lennart Karl
7S. Gnabry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Bayern München-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
1.92points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-2
- Scored
- 1.85
- Conceded
- 1.23
Bayern München · Away
2.54points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-3-0
- Scored
- 3.15
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | W 5–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A | W 3–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–3 A | W 8–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 4–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 37 of 78 · 1.42 per game | 67 of 78 · 2.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 SC Freiburg wins1 draws8 Bayern München wins
Goals per game0.78 – 3.00
Over 2.578%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets0% · 44%
- 22 Nov 2025Bayern München6–2SC Freiburg
- 25 Jan 2025SC Freiburg1–2Bayern München
- 1 Sep 2024Bayern München2–0SC Freiburg
- 1 Mar 2024SC Freiburg2–2Bayern München
- 8 Oct 2023Bayern München3–0SC Freiburg
- 8 Apr 2023SC Freiburg0–1Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 3.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 0.93 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 4.52 | 4.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 96% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 74% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 63% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| SC Freiburg | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 3.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 4.30 | 4.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 5.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.05 | 9.36 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 11/23 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 10/23 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 6/23 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.41 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 3.52 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 13/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 10/27 | 33% 9/27 | |
| SC Freiburg | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.60 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.10 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 122 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 3.73
Red cards0.23league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 37%
Fouls23.1league 20.5
Penalties0.27league 0.36
Home wins43%league 45%
SC Freiburg13 with this referee
Record4-4-5
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- W22 Feb 26H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11
- W13 Sep 25H · VfB Stuttgart3–11
- D4 May 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–21
- L25 Jan 25H · Bayern München1–24
- W14 Sep 24H · VfL Bochum2–10
Bayern München13 with this referee
Record8-3-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W4 Oct 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt3–02
- D15 Feb 25A · Bayer Leverkusen0–03
- W25 Jan 25A · SC Freiburg2–12
- W20 Dec 24H · RB Leipzig5–15
- W25 Aug 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg27 games · scored 39 · conceded 44
7
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
7
9
31-45
7
15
46-60
6
3
61-75
10
9
76-90
Bayern München27 games · scored 97 · conceded 25
6
4
0-15
17
4
16-30
19
4
31-45
11
2
46-60
17
2
61-75
27
9
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 35 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
8
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
9
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
