Bundesliga Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 4 · 14:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
SC Freiburg 8th · 37 pts · 27 played
2–3Full time
Bayern München 1st · 70 pts · 27 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
SC Freiburg12.1%fair odds 8.23
Draw15.5%fair odds 6.46
Bayern München72.4%fair odds 1.38
Expected goals1.15 – 2.87total 4.02
Likeliest score1–28.5%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

SC Freiburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Bayern München

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

SC Freiburg ↓ · Bayern München →0123456+
02.14.87.47.15.12.92.2
11.86.28.58.15.83.32.6
21.23.44.94.73.41.91.5
30.51.31.91.81.30.70.6
40.10.40.50.50.40.20.2
50.00.10.10.10.10.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–28.5%11.76
  • 1–38.1%12.30
  • 0–27.4%13.56
  • 0–37.1%14.18
  • 1–16.2%16.03
  • 1–45.8%17.14
  • 0–45.1%19.76
  • 2–24.9%20.40
  • 0–14.8%20.73
  • 2–34.7%21.33

Winning margin

1.3% SC Freiburg by 3+ fair 77.11
3.2% SC Freiburg by 2 fair 31.41
7.7% SC Freiburg by 1 fair 13.05
15.5% Draw fair 6.46
19.5% Bayern München by 1 fair 5.12
19.7% Bayern München by 2 fair 5.07
33.1% Bayern München by 3+ fair 3.02

Goal distribution

Total goals

2%0
7%1
15%2
19%3
20%4
38%5+

SC Freiburg goals

32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

Bayern München goals

6%0
16%1
23%2
22%3
32%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
SC Freiburg win 12.1% 13.4% -1.3 pp
Draw 15.5% 17.8% -2.3 pp
Bayern München win 72.4% 68.8% +3.6 pp
Over 2.5 76.5% 68.9% +7.6 pp
Both teams score 64.9% 60.0% +4.9 pp
Expected goals SC Freiburg 1.15 1.05 +0.11
Expected goals Bayern München 2.87 2.51 +0.36

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • SC Freiburg win12.1%8.23
  • Draw15.5%6.46
  • Bayern München win72.4%1.38
  • Double chance SC Freiburg or draw27.6%3.62
  • Double chance SC Freiburg or Bayern München84.5%1.18
  • Double chance Bayern München or draw87.9%1.14
  • Draw no bet SC Freiburg14.4%6.96
  • Draw no bet Bayern München85.6%1.17

Goals

  • Over 0.597.9%1.02
  • Over 1.591.3%1.10
  • Over 2.576.5%1.31
  • Over 3.557.1%1.75
  • Over 4.537.6%2.66
  • Under 1.58.7%11.52
  • Under 2.523.5%4.26
  • Under 3.542.9%2.33

Both teams to score

  • Yes64.9%1.54
  • No35.1%2.85
  • Yes and over 2.558.6%1.71
  • SC Freiburg win and yes8.6%11.66
  • Draw and yes13.4%7.48
  • Bayern München win and yes42.9%2.33

Team goals

  • SC Freiburg over 0.568.4%1.46
  • SC Freiburg over 1.532.0%3.12
  • SC Freiburg over 2.511.0%9.05
  • Bayern München over 0.594.3%1.06
  • Bayern München over 1.578.1%1.28
  • Bayern München over 2.554.7%1.83
  • SC Freiburg clean sheet5.7%17.63
  • Bayern München clean sheet31.6%3.17
  • SC Freiburg win to nil3.6%28.04
  • Bayern München win to nil29.5%3.39

Handicap

  • SC Freiburg −1.54.5%22.32
  • SC Freiburg −2.51.3%77.11
  • Bayern München +1.595.5%1.05
  • Bayern München +2.598.7%1.01
  • Bayern München −1.552.8%1.89
  • SC Freiburg +1.547.2%2.12

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored243 Favourite won57.2% Avg chance given to result43.4% 1X2 Brier0.557 Over 2.5 called right60.1% BTTS called right56.4%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3238.3%37.5%
40–50%7544.9%46.7%
50–60%6655.2%62.1%
60–70%3964.5%69.2%
70–80%2074.1%75.0%
80%+1186.3%81.8%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 196 of 243 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.54930.5458
Avg chance given to result43.8%43.3%
Favourite won58.7%58.2%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 196 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 243 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.