SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Freiburg51.2%fair odds 1.95
Draw24.7%fair odds 4.05
FC Augsburg24.2%fair odds 4.14
Expected goals1.76 – 1.14total 2.90
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Freiburg ↓ · FC Augsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns FC Augsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.60
- 2–19.7%10.30
- 1–09.1%11.04
- 2–08.5%11.79
- 1–26.3%15.83
- 0–06.1%16.48
- 0–15.7%17.57
- 3–15.7%17.57
- 2–25.6%18.00
- 3–05.0%20.12
Winning margin
12.7%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 7.86
15.8%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 6.32
22.6%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.42
24.7%
Draw
fair 4.05
14.5%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 6.88
6.7%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 14.93
2.9%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 33.92
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
SC Freiburg goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+
FC Augsburg goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 51.2% | 50.1% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 24.7% | 25.6% | -1.0 pp |
| FC Augsburg win | 24.2% | 24.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 51.7% | +3.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.0% | 54.2% | +2.8 pp |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 1.76 | 1.66 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.14 | 1.09 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Freiburg win51.2%1.95
- Draw24.7%4.05
- FC Augsburg win24.2%4.14
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw75.8%1.32
- Double chance SC Freiburg or FC Augsburg75.3%1.33
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw48.8%2.05
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg67.9%1.47
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg32.1%3.12
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.06
- Over 1.579.2%1.26
- Over 2.555.5%1.80
- Over 3.533.1%3.02
- Over 4.516.9%5.92
- Under 1.520.8%4.80
- Under 2.544.5%2.25
- Under 3.566.9%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes57.0%1.75
- No43.0%2.33
- Yes and over 2.545.4%2.20
- SC Freiburg win and yes25.4%3.94
- Draw and yes18.6%5.38
- FC Augsburg win and yes13.0%7.68
Team goals
- SC Freiburg over 0.582.8%1.21
- SC Freiburg over 1.552.5%1.91
- SC Freiburg over 2.525.8%3.87
- FC Augsburg over 0.568.2%1.47
- FC Augsburg over 1.531.7%3.15
- FC Augsburg over 2.510.9%9.19
- SC Freiburg clean sheet31.8%3.14
- FC Augsburg clean sheet17.2%5.80
- SC Freiburg win to nil25.8%3.88
- FC Augsburg win to nil11.2%8.96
Handicap
- SC Freiburg −1.528.5%3.50
- SC Freiburg −2.512.7%7.86
- FC Augsburg +1.571.5%1.40
- FC Augsburg +2.587.3%1.15
- FC Augsburg −1.59.6%10.36
- SC Freiburg +1.590.4%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored1
Favourite won100.0%
Avg chance given to result70.0%
1X2 Brier0.136
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right0.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70–80% | 1 | 70.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 1 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✓Bayern München 6–0 RB Leipzig70·18·12
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 1 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.