SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 43). Absences weigh more on SC Freiburg. SC Freiburg had ? days of rest, FC Augsburg ? and had to travel 230 km.
Away travel230 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
SC Freiburg51%
Draw25%
FC Augsburg24%
SC Freiburg51%
Draw25%
FC Augsburg23%
SC Freiburg52%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg23%
SC Freiburg43%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg31%
SC Freiburg50%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg24%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 98
Team strength
SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
63
AttackIn forecast
72
73
DefenceIn forecast
23
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgFC Augsburg
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
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—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
11.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
32%
On target shareContext
28%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
70%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.90
Shots allowedContext
14.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.89
BlocksContext
4.11
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
62%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
430
PassesContext
401
349
Accurate passesContext
324
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.70
FoulsContext
8.10
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel230 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 230 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
18E. Dinkçi
9L. Höler
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
31K. Schlotterbeck
6J. Gouweleeuw
5C. Matsima
13D. Giannoulis
17K. Jakić
19Robin Fellhauer
27M. Wolf
4H. Massengo
26E. Saad
36M. Kömür
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg-1.3 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- FC Augsburg+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
No home games yet this season.
FC Augsburg · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 SC Freiburg wins1 draws1 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game2.25 – 0.63
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 13%
- 2 Mar 2025FC Augsburg0–0SC Freiburg
- 19 Oct 2024SC Freiburg3–1FC Augsburg
- 25 Feb 2024FC Augsburg2–1SC Freiburg
- 1 Oct 2023SC Freiburg2–0FC Augsburg
- 28 Jan 2023SC Freiburg3–1FC Augsburg
- 6 Aug 2022FC Augsburg0–4SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 57% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| SC Freiburg | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 57% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| SC Freiburg | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.75 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 98 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.86league 5.00
Red cards0.11league 0.00
Cards 5+56%league 100%
Fouls22.1league 26.0
Penalties0.29league 0.00
Home wins45%league 100%
SC Freiburg6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L5 Apr 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–41
- L18 Jan 25A · VfB Stuttgart0–43
- D24 Sep 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–02
- W18 Feb 23A · VfL Bochum2–02
- L21 Jan 23A · VfL Wolfsburg0–62
FC Augsburg5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Dec 24H · Bayer Leverkusen0–23
- W15 Sep 24H · FC St. Pauli3–14
- W2 Mar 24A · SV Darmstadt 986–00
- W4 Mar 23H · Werder Bremen2–12
- L16 Oct 22A · 1.FC Köln2–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC FreiburgFC AugsburgSC Freiburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
