SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 – 30 Nov 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 30 · 18:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

SC Freiburg 12th · 13 pts · 11 played DLDWL

4–0Full time

FSV Mainz 05 18th · 6 pts · 11 played LLDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Freiburg were slight favourites.

SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 49). Absences weigh more on FSV Mainz 05. SC Freiburg had 3 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 9 and had to travel 223 km.

Away travel223 kmRest days3 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 1

SC Freiburg52%

Draw24%

FSV Mainz 0524%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.16

SC Freiburg50%

Draw26%

FSV Mainz 0525%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

SC Freiburg50%

Draw25%

FSV Mainz 0525%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.17

SC Freiburg44%

Draw26%

FSV Mainz 0530%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.30

SC Freiburg51%

Draw25%

FSV Mainz 0524%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.08

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 83

Team strength

SC Freiburg

FSV Mainz 05

59 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

63 AttackIn forecast 68

73 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Freiburg

FSV Mainz 05

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.82 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.73

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

73% Scored inContext 55%

27% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.82 ShotsContext 11.91

3.45 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

32% On target shareContext 24%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.09

66% Box shareContext 73%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.44 OffsidesContext 3.20

12.27 Shots allowedContext 14.55

4.18 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.82

3.73 BlocksContext 4.20

2.36 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

57% Save rateContext 62%

48% PossessionIn forecast 49%

402 PassesContext 392

328 Accurate passesContext 296

82% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.75

8.91 FoulsContext 12.36

12.73 Fouls sufferedContext 12.18

1.64 Yellow cardsContext 2.45

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.27

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.38

60% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.30 ShotsContext 11.50

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

40% On target shareContext 24%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

68% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.60

12.50 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11

3.70 BlocksContext 3.88

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

68% Save rateContext 65%

47% PossessionIn forecast 50%

392 PassesContext 414

320 Accurate passesContext 317

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.69

10.50 FoulsContext 13.80

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,431 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FSV Mainz 05

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel223 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Freiburg	FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov	9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	223 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,431 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

1N. Atubolu(G)

29P. Treu 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 17L. Kübler

32V. Grifo 44J. Manzambi 8M. Eggestein 19J. Beste

14Y. Suzuki

9L. Höler

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1L. Rieß(G)

48K. Potulski 16S. Bell 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 24Sota Kawasaki

17B. Hollerbach 8P. Nebel

9A. Nordin

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Freiburg Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Freiburg+1.7 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
FSV Mainz 05-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 1.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.60

FSV Mainz 05 · Away 0.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	SC Freiburg	FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen	L 0–2 A	L 3–4 H
Eintracht Frankfurt	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
1899 Hoffenheim	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Werder Bremen	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
VfB Stuttgart	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 A
1.FC Köln	L 1–4 A	L 0–1 H
FC Augsburg	L 1–3 H	W 4–1 A
Points	8 of 21 · 1.14 per game	5 of 21 · 0.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 SC Freiburg wins6 draws0 FSV Mainz 05 wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.75 Over 2.525% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 25%

15 Mar 2025FSV Mainz 052–2SC Freiburg
3 Nov 2024SC Freiburg0–0FSV Mainz 05
21 Apr 2024SC Freiburg1–1FSV Mainz 05
3 Dec 2023FSV Mainz 050–1SC Freiburg
19 Mar 2023FSV Mainz 051–1SC Freiburg
1 Oct 2022SC Freiburg2–1FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Freiburg	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	1.00
Conceded per game	1.82	1.73
Match goals	3.18	2.73	2.97
Over 1.5	82%	73%
Over 2.5	64%	36%	57%
Over 3.5	45%	27%
Both teams scored	64%	55%	58%
Clean sheets	27%	0%
Failed to score	27%	45%
Games	11	11

	SC Freiburg	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.10
Conceded per game	1.30	1.80
Match goals	2.50	2.90	2.97
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Freiburg	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	5.20
Corners conceded	3.44	3.70
Match total	8.77	8.90	9.78
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.82	2.82
Opponent cards	2.82	1.91
Match total	4.64	4.73	4.14
Over 3.5	64% 7/11	82% 9/11
Over 4.5	45% 5/11	45% 5/11

	SC Freiburg	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.78
Corners conceded	3.44	3.11
Match total	8.44	7.89	9.78
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.60
Opponent cards	2.30	2.50
Match total	3.80	5.10	4.14
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 83 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.25league 3.97

Red cards0.24league 0.21

Cards 5+51%league 42%

Fouls22.7league 21.6

Penalties0.28league 0.34

Home wins55%league 44%

SC Freiburg2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D5 Oct 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–02
W26 Sep 21H · FC Augsburg3–00

FSV Mainz 058 with this referee

Record2-3-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

W20 Sep 25A · FC Augsburg4–12
L30 Mar 25A · Borussia Dortmund1–30
D8 Feb 25H · FC Augsburg0–03
W6 Apr 24H · SV Darmstadt 984–02
L10 Sep 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–43

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.