UEFA Europa League Semi-finals Thu, May 7 · 20:00 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
SC Freiburg 4th · 9 pts · 5 played
First leg1–2 3–1Full time
SC Braga 2nd · 10 pts · 5 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

SC Freiburg were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards SC Freiburg. SC Freiburg had 4.1 days of rest, SC Braga 4.1 and had to travel 1,467 km.

Away travel1,467 kmRest days4.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
SC Freiburg45%
Draw27%
SC Braga29%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.17
SC Freiburg41%
Draw27%
SC Braga32%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24
SC Freiburg43%
Draw27%
SC Braga30%
Expected goals 1.45 – 1.19
SC Freiburg37%
Draw27%
SC Braga35%
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.31
SC Freiburg45%
Draw27%
SC Braga28%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.10
Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
  • Cards per match 4.8
  • Penalties per match 0.20
  • Matches 114

Team strength

SC FreiburgSC Braga
60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 56
63 AttackIn forecast 42
73 DefenceIn forecast 59
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

SC Braga

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC FreiburgSC Braga
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.48
1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03
+1.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.72
80% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
9.40 ShotsContext 8.80
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80
47% On target shareContext 55%
6.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.20
65% Box shareContext 82%
26% ConversionContext 25%
1.60 OffsidesContext 2.50
12.20 Shots allowedContext 9.60
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80
3.80 BlocksContext 2.50
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60
71% Save rateContext 68%
47% PossessionIn forecast 58%
392 PassesContext 532
323 Accurate passesContext 460
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.11 Team ratingContext 6.89
11.20 FoulsContext 13.80
13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.27 xGVia Att/Def 0.99
1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
+0.73 Goals minus xGContext +0.51
90% Scored inContext 100%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.10 ShotsContext 7.60
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30
41% On target shareContext 43%
7.90 Shots in the boxContext 5.30
70% Box shareContext 67%
18% ConversionContext 20%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.50
12.60 Shots allowedContext 9.70
4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
3.60 BlocksContext 2.44
2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.90
68% Save rateContext 63%
46% PossessionIn forecast 61%
378 PassesContext 578
308 Accurate passesContext 505
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.96 Team ratingContext 6.79
9.80 FoulsContext 11.60
12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,718 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
SC Braga
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,467 km3,066 km in 14d
Schedule load37%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Freiburg SC Braga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Moderate · 37
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 3 May4.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,467 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,718 km3,066 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 72 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one2.84

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1N. Atubolu(G)
29P. Treu 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 17L. Kübler
27N. Höfler 8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo 44J. Manzambi 19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
+3 more reported missing outside this XI
SC Braga Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1L. Horníček(G)
6Vitor Carvalho 15Paulo Oliveira 14G. Lagerbielke
20M. Dorgeles 34D. Tıknaz 8João Moutinho 2Víctor Gómez
10R. Zalazar 29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
18Pau Víctor
+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Freiburg Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • SC Freiburg+2.1 pp
  • Draw-0.4 pp
  • SC Braga-1.7 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
2-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
0.50
SC Braga · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 SC Freiburg wins0 draws1 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 30 Apr 2026SC Braga2–1SC Freiburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SC FreiburgSC BragaForecast
Scored per game 2.402.20
Conceded per game 1.001.20
Match goals 3.403.40 2.69
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 80%60% 50%
Over 3.5 40%40%
Both teams scored 60%60% 54%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games55
SC FreiburgSC BragaForecast
Scored per game 2.001.50
Conceded per game 1.401.10
Match goals 3.402.60 2.69
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 80%50% 50%
Over 3.5 40%20%
Both teams scored 70%70% 54%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC FreiburgSC BragaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.254.40
Corners conceded4.752.00
Match total8.006.408.43
Over 8.550% 2/420% 1/5
Over 9.525% 1/420% 1/5
Over 10.525% 1/420% 1/5
Cards
Cards2.403.00
Opponent cards1.802.40
Match total4.205.404.39
Over 3.560% 3/580% 4/5
Over 4.560% 3/580% 4/5
SC FreiburgSC BragaLeague
Corners
Corners won2.884.20
Corners conceded5.253.40
Match total8.137.608.43
Over 8.550% 4/840% 4/10
Over 9.525% 2/820% 2/10
Over 10.513% 1/820% 2/10
Cards
Cards2.002.90
Opponent cards1.503.10
Match total3.506.004.39
Over 3.550% 5/1090% 9/10
Over 4.550% 5/1080% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 114 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.54league 4.23
Red cards0.28league 0.27
Cards 5+52%league 58%
Fouls25.1league 25.8
Penalties0.20league 0.31
Home wins36%league 50%
SC Freiburg

No previous matches with this referee.

SC Braga1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 0
  • W16 Apr 26A · Real Betis4–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

SC Freiburg5 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
3 46-60
61-75
2 2 76-90
SC Braga5 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
4 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
1 3 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
5 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 6 76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
3 1 0-15
3 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
2 4 61-75
2 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
Nottingham Forest Aston Villa 10 SC Braga SC Freiburg 21 Aston Villa Nottingham Forest 40 SC Freiburg SC Braga 31