SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 37). Absences weigh more on Utrecht. SC Freiburg had 4.2 days of rest, Utrecht 5.1 and had to travel 495 km.
Away travel495 kmRest days4.2 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
SC Freiburg57%
Draw24%
Utrecht20%
SC Freiburg55%
Draw24%
Utrecht20%
SC Freiburg56%
Draw24%
Utrecht20%
SC Freiburg49%
Draw26%
Utrecht25%
SC Freiburg57%
Draw24%
Utrecht20%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
RefereeRohit Saggi
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 22
Team strength
SC Freiburg
Utrecht
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
63
AttackIn forecast
32
73
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgUtrecht
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.88
100%
Scored inContext
0%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.50
ShotsContext
8.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
41%
On target shareContext
24%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
73%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
0%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
5.00
BlocksContext
5.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
71%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
375
PassesContext
380
294
Accurate passesContext
291
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.68
13.50
FoulsContext
14.50
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
90%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
12.50
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
32%
On target shareContext
35%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
72%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
3.25
OffsidesContext
1.38
11.50
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.78
BlocksContext
3.88
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
63%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
398
PassesContext
428
317
Accurate passesContext
347
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.30
FoulsContext
11.50
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel495 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 5.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 495 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
20C. Adamu
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
3M. van der Hoorn
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
22Miguel Rodríguez
15A. Blake
91S. Haller
8C. Bozdoğan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Utrecht-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Utrecht · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| SC Freiburg | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.70 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 40% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.00 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| SC Freiburg | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 9.45 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rohit Saggi 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.73league 4.09
Red cards0.36league 0.11
Cards 5+59%league 39%
Fouls26.4league 25.2
Penalties0.23league 0.36
Home wins50%league 45%
SC Freiburg1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Nov 23H · TSC Backa Topola5–01
UtrechtNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Utrecht2 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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