SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart – 13 Sep 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 13 · 14:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

SC Freiburg 18th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

3–1Full time

VfB Stuttgart 9th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 49). SC Freiburg had 12.8 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 14 and had to travel 131 km.

Away travel131 kmRest days12.8 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

SC Freiburg37%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart37%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.50

SC Freiburg37%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

SC Freiburg37%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart37%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.50

SC Freiburg30%

Draw25%

VfB Stuttgart45%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.68

SC Freiburg37%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

Over 2.5 57% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 100

Team strength

SC Freiburg

VfB Stuttgart

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

63 AttackIn forecast 70

73 DefenceIn forecast 58

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Freiburg

VfB Stuttgart

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

3.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.00 ShotsContext 16.50

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

21% On target shareContext 33%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

71% Box shareContext 67%

7% ConversionContext 6%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

14.50 Shots allowedContext 11.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

5.00 BlocksContext 1.50

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

36% Save rateContext 100%

61% PossessionIn forecast 64%

492 PassesContext 546

410 Accurate passesContext 484

83% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.00 FoulsContext 9.00

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 16.00

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.90

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

100% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.80 ShotsContext 15.50

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

30% On target shareContext 34%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.20

72% Box shareContext 72%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.56 OffsidesContext 1.67

12.10 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

4.11 BlocksContext 3.10

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

54% Save rateContext 68%

53% PossessionIn forecast 62%

434 PassesContext 566

355 Accurate passesContext 497

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.84 Team ratingContext 7.08

10.60 FoulsContext 10.00

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg

Rest12.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km666 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

VfB Stuttgart

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel131 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Freiburg	VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Aug	14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	131 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	666 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1N. Atubolu(G)

33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 17L. Kübler

6P. Osterhage 8M. Eggestein

32V. Grifo 44J. Manzambi 19J. Beste

9L. Höler

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

33A. Nübel(G)

7M. Mittelstädt 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman

6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor

18J. Leweling 11B. El Khannouss 27B. Bouanani

9E. Demirović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Freiburg Absences are shown before kick-off

VfB Stuttgart Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Freiburg+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

VfB Stuttgart · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 SC Freiburg wins0 draws3 VfB Stuttgart wins

Goals per game1.50 – 2.00 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

18 Jan 2025VfB Stuttgart4–0SC Freiburg
24 Aug 2024SC Freiburg3–1VfB Stuttgart
3 Feb 2024SC Freiburg1–3VfB Stuttgart
2 Sep 2023VfB Stuttgart5–0SC Freiburg
11 Feb 2023SC Freiburg2–1VfB Stuttgart
20 Aug 2022VfB Stuttgart0–1SC Freiburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Freiburg	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	3.50	1.00
Match goals	4.50	2.00	2.99
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	SC Freiburg	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	3.50	1.00
Match goals	4.50	2.00	2.99
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Freiburg	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	8.50
Corners conceded	4.00	7.00
Match total	9.00	15.50	10.28
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	100% 2/2
Cards
Cards	2.50	3.00
Opponent cards	3.50	2.50
Match total	6.00	5.50	5.33
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2

	SC Freiburg	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	6.50
Corners conceded	3.70	4.40
Match total	7.50	10.90	10.28
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.00
Opponent cards	2.40	2.20
Match total	4.10	4.20	5.33
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 100 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.57league 4.89

Red cards0.21league 0.37

Cards 5+52%league 58%

Fouls23.7league 23.1

Penalties0.24league 0.42

Home wins40%league 42%

SC Freiburg11 with this referee

Record2-4-5 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D4 May 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–21
L25 Jan 25H · Bayern München1–24
W14 Sep 24H · VfL Bochum2–10
D11 May 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–11
L6 Apr 24H · RB Leipzig1–43

VfB Stuttgart9 with this referee

Record6-1-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

W17 May 25A · RB Leipzig3–20
L16 Mar 25H · Bayer Leverkusen3–43
W8 Feb 25A · Borussia Dortmund2–12
D1 Nov 24A · Bayer Leverkusen0–04
W3 Feb 24A · SC Freiburg3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.