La Liga Gameweek 25 Sun, Feb 21 · 16:00 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla
Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel390 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sevilla—%
Draw—%
Real Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sevilla)

Forecast from 6 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sevilla and Real Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SevillaReal Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
50 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
48 AttackIn forecast 89
57 DefenceIn forecast 85
67 Form indexContext 91
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SevillaReal Madrid
1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.56
1.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.05 xGVia Att/Def 2.41
1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.15
100% Scored inContext 89%
22% Clean sheetsContext 22%
11.78 ShotsContext 17.56
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.22
37% On target shareContext 41%
7.44 Shots in the boxContext 12.33
61% Box shareContext 69%
13% ConversionContext 15%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.13
12.67 Shots allowedContext 12.78
5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
3.29 BlocksContext 3.44
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
60% Save rateContext 73%
41% PossessionIn forecast 53%
344 PassesContext 528
267 Accurate passesContext 476
78% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.74 Team ratingContext 7.17
14.67 FoulsContext 8.44
12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 14.11
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.11
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.32
1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
+0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.38
90% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.50 ShotsContext 16.90
4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30
36% On target shareContext 43%
7.10 Shots in the boxContext 12.20
59% Box shareContext 71%
12% ConversionContext 16%
2.13 OffsidesContext 2.00
12.60 Shots allowedContext 14.20
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10
3.00 BlocksContext 3.80
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
60% Save rateContext 75%
42% PossessionIn forecast 50%
353 PassesContext 501
278 Accurate passesContext 446
79% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.72 Team ratingContext 7.13
15.20 FoulsContext 8.90
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
  • W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts
Real Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel390 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sevilla Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 14 Feb7La Liga 2026-2027, 14 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km390 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km705 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas
9R. Ure
Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sevilla Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75
Real Madrid · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentSevillaReal Madrid
Espanyol D 1–1 A W 2–1 A
Atletico Madrid L 1–3 H L 1–2 A
Rayo Vallecano W 2–1 H W 4–1 H
Points4 of 9 · 1.33 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

0 Sevilla wins1 draws9 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.80 – 2.30 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%
  • 18 Oct 2026Real Madrid4–1Sevilla
  • 17 May 2026Sevilla0–1Real Madrid
  • 20 Dec 2025Real Madrid2–0Sevilla
  • 18 May 2025Sevilla0–2Real Madrid
  • 22 Dec 2024Real Madrid4–2Sevilla
  • 25 Feb 2024Real Madrid1–0Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SevillaReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.562.56
Conceded per game 1.781.00
Match goals 3.333.56
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 67%78%
Over 3.5 56%56%
Both teams scored 78%67%
Clean sheets 22%22%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games99
SevillaReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.402.70
Conceded per game 1.701.20
Match goals 3.103.90
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 60%80%
Over 3.5 50%60%
Both teams scored 70%70%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SevillaReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won3.006.25
Corners conceded3.564.25
Match total6.5610.509.91
Over 8.522% 2/963% 5/8
Over 9.522% 2/963% 5/8
Over 10.511% 1/963% 5/8
Cards
Cards3.332.33
Opponent cards2.112.67
Match total5.445.004.73
Over 3.578% 7/978% 7/9
Over 4.556% 5/967% 6/9
SevillaReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won3.006.30
Corners conceded3.605.00
Match total6.6011.309.91
Over 8.520% 2/1070% 7/10
Over 9.520% 2/1070% 7/10
Over 10.510% 1/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards3.102.20
Opponent cards2.002.50
Match total5.104.704.73
Over 3.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sevilla9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 2 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Real Madrid9 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Levante Feb 2116:00 Atletico Madrid Elche Feb 2116:00 Athletic Club Celta Vigo Feb 2116:00 Villarreal Valencia Feb 2116:00 Malaga Real Betis Feb 2116:00 Sevilla Real Madrid Feb 2116:00 Espanyol Osasuna Feb 2116:00 Alaves Racing Santander Feb 2116:00 Deportivo La Coruna Real Sociedad Feb 2116:00 Rayo Vallecano Getafe Feb 2116:00