Slovan Bratislava
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Slovan Bratislava17.6%fair odds 5.69
Draw20.0%fair odds 5.00
VfB Stuttgart62.4%fair odds 1.60
Expected goals1.16 – 2.30total 3.46
Likeliest score1–29.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
Baseline: average Bundesliga opponent
Attack Uplift
+35%
Expected goals
Baseline1.70Forecast2.30
Conceding Risk
−35%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.78Forecast1.16
Clean Sheet
+14.5 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline16.9%Forecast31.3%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Slovan Bratislava ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Slovan Bratislava goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.6%10.37
- 1–18.8%11.31
- 0–28.3%12.03
- 1–37.4%13.53
- 0–16.8%14.73
- 0–36.4%15.70
- 2–25.6%17.87
- 2–14.9%20.53
- 2–34.3%23.33
- 1–44.2%23.56
Winning margin
2.0%
Slovan Bratislava by 3+
fair 49.13
4.8%
Slovan Bratislava by 2
fair 21.03
10.8%
Slovan Bratislava by 1
fair 9.27
20.0%
Draw
fair 5.00
21.8%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.58
18.7%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 5.36
22.0%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 4.56
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
Slovan Bratislava goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovan Bratislava win | 17.6% | 18.3% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 20.0% | 20.1% | -0.1 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 62.4% | 61.6% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.1% | 67.7% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.2% | 63.2% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Slovan Bratislava | 1.16 | 1.20 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Slovan Bratislava win17.6%5.69
- Draw20.0%5.00
- VfB Stuttgart win62.4%1.60
- Double chance Slovan Bratislava or draw37.6%2.66
- Double chance Slovan Bratislava or VfB Stuttgart80.0%1.25
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw82.4%1.21
- Draw no bet Slovan Bratislava22.0%4.55
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart78.0%1.28
Goals
- Over 0.596.4%1.04
- Over 1.586.4%1.16
- Over 2.567.1%1.49
- Over 3.545.4%2.20
- Over 4.526.7%3.75
- Under 1.513.6%7.36
- Under 2.532.9%3.04
- Under 3.554.6%1.83
Both teams to score
- Yes62.2%1.61
- No37.8%2.65
- Yes and over 2.553.4%1.87
- Slovan Bratislava win and yes11.1%8.98
- Draw and yes16.4%6.10
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes34.7%2.88
Team goals
- Slovan Bratislava over 0.568.7%1.46
- Slovan Bratislava over 1.532.3%3.10
- Slovan Bratislava over 2.511.2%8.93
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.590.0%1.11
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.566.9%1.50
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.540.3%2.48
- Slovan Bratislava clean sheet10.0%9.95
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet31.3%3.19
- Slovan Bratislava win to nil6.5%15.50
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil27.7%3.60
Handicap
- Slovan Bratislava −1.56.8%14.73
- Slovan Bratislava −2.52.0%49.13
- VfB Stuttgart +1.593.2%1.07
- VfB Stuttgart +2.598.0%1.02
- VfB Stuttgart −1.540.6%2.46
- Slovan Bratislava +1.559.4%1.68
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored28
Favourite won75.0%
Avg chance given to result51.5%
1X2 Brier0.447
Over 2.5 called right71.4%
BTTS called right64.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 39.7% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 45.8% | 70.0% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 54.9% | 85.7% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 66.6% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 85.0% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 28 of 28 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4472 | 0.4566 |
| Avg chance given to result | 51.5% | 52.2% |
| Favourite won | 75.0% | 64.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 10 of 28 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.