Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 22). Sporting CP usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Sporting CP had 14.1 days of rest, Casa Pia 12.2 and had to travel.
Rest days14.1 · 12.2Matches / 14d0 · 1
Sporting CP82%
Draw13%
Casa Pia5%
Sporting CP82%
Draw12%
Casa Pia5%
Sporting CP82%
Draw13%
Casa Pia5%
Sporting CP76%
Draw16%
Casa Pia8%
Sporting CP82%
Draw12%
Casa Pia5%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva
- Cards per match 7.6
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 8
Team strength
Sporting CP
Casa Pia
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
75
AttackIn forecast
13
81
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPCasa Pia
2.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
2.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
0.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
100%
Scored inContext
59%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
18.82
ShotsContext
8.24
7.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
40%
On target shareContext
34%
12.47
Shots in the boxContext
4.81
66%
Box shareContext
57%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.13
8.41
Shots allowedContext
12.76
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.53
2.41
BlocksContext
3.41
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
83%
Save rateContext
56%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
527
PassesContext
327
461
Accurate passesContext
252
88%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.41
FoulsContext
15.35
13.35
Fouls sufferedContext
14.41
2.35
Yellow cardsContext
3.06
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+1.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
100%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.80
ShotsContext
7.40
6.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
42%
On target shareContext
39%
10.22
Shots in the boxContext
4.90
62%
Box shareContext
63%
18%
ConversionContext
15%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.80
BlocksContext
3.10
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
84%
Save rateContext
50%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
512
PassesContext
337
452
Accurate passesContext
263
88%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.63
12.10
FoulsContext
15.40
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Casa Pia
Rest12.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Jan | 12.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
22Iván Fresneda
2Matheus Reis
25G. Inácio
13G. Vagiannidis
5H. Morita
52João Simões
31Luis Guilherme
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
5A. Conté
43David Sousa
6José Fonte
4João Goulart
72Gaizka Larrazabal
7K. Nsona
42S. Pérez
74Renato Nhaga
29J. Livolant
90Cassiano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-1
- Scored
- 3.38
- Conceded
- 0.38
Casa Pia · Away
1.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-5
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Guimaraes | W 4–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| AVS | W 6–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Estrela | W 4–0 H | L 3–5 H |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Alverca | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Nacional | W 4–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Arouca | W 6–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 39 of 48 · 2.44 per game | 14 of 48 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
7 Sporting CP wins0 draws0 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game3.43 – 0.86
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 0%
- 8 Aug 2025Casa Pia0–2Sporting CP
- 9 Mar 2025Casa Pia1–3Sporting CP
- 5 Oct 2024Sporting CP2–0Casa Pia
- 29 Jan 2024Sporting CP8–0Casa Pia
- 18 Aug 2023Casa Pia1–2Sporting CP
- 9 Apr 2023Casa Pia3–4Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.76 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.53 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 2.88 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 47% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 47% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 41% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Sporting CP | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.53 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.93 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 9.46 | 9.07 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 10/15 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.47 | 3.12 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.06 | 2.65 | |
| Match total | 5.53 | 5.77 | 5.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 11/17 | 88% 15/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 10/17 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Sporting CP | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 9.00 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 5.50 | 5.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards7.38league 5.07
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+100%league 60%
Fouls28.1league 27.3
Penalties0.25league 0.44
Home wins38%league 38%
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
Casa PiaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP17 games · scored 47 · conceded 9
4
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
11
31-45
8
1
46-60
8
2
61-75
11
2
76-90
Casa Pia16 games · scored 14 · conceded 27
2
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 27 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
9
1
31-45
6
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Casa Pia9 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
