Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sporting CP81.9%fair odds 1.22
Draw12.7%fair odds 7.87
Casa Pia5.3%fair odds 18.70
Expected goals2.76 – 0.60total 3.37
Likeliest score2–013.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Casa Pia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sporting CP ↓ · Casa Pia → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sporting CP goals, columns Casa Pia goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.2%7.60
- 3–012.1%8.24
- 1–09.2%10.85
- 4–08.4%11.93
- 2–18.0%12.58
- 3–17.3%13.65
- 1–16.1%16.51
- 4–15.1%19.75
- 5–04.6%21.58
- 0–03.7%26.67
Winning margin
40.0%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 2.50
22.2%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 4.50
19.7%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 5.07
12.7%
Draw
fair 7.87
4.1%
Casa Pia by 1
fair 24.57
1.1%
Casa Pia by 2
fair 94.35
0.2%
Casa Pia by 3+
fair 457.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Sporting CP goals
6%0
17%1
24%2
22%3
30%4+
Casa Pia goals
55%0
33%1
10%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP win | 81.9% | 82.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 12.7% | 12.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Casa Pia win | 5.3% | 5.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 67.1% | -1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 42.8% | 44.4% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 2.76 | 2.83 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Casa Pia | 0.60 | 0.63 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sporting CP win81.9%1.22
- Draw12.7%7.87
- Casa Pia win5.3%18.70
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw94.7%1.06
- Double chance Sporting CP or Casa Pia87.3%1.15
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw18.1%5.54
- Draw no bet Sporting CP93.9%1.07
- Draw no bet Casa Pia6.1%16.32
Goals
- Over 0.596.3%1.04
- Over 1.585.3%1.17
- Over 2.565.4%1.53
- Over 3.543.5%2.30
- Over 4.525.0%4.00
- Under 1.514.7%6.78
- Under 2.534.6%2.89
- Under 3.556.5%1.77
Both teams to score
- Yes42.8%2.34
- No57.2%1.75
- Yes and over 2.536.7%2.72
- Sporting CP win and yes31.0%3.22
- Draw and yes9.0%11.17
- Casa Pia win and yes2.8%35.77
Team goals
- Sporting CP over 0.593.7%1.07
- Sporting CP over 1.576.3%1.31
- Sporting CP over 2.552.2%1.92
- Casa Pia over 0.545.3%2.21
- Casa Pia over 1.512.3%8.12
- Casa Pia over 2.52.4%42.53
- Sporting CP clean sheet54.7%1.83
- Casa Pia clean sheet6.3%15.87
- Sporting CP win to nil50.9%1.96
- Casa Pia win to nil2.6%39.18
Handicap
- Sporting CP −1.562.2%1.61
- Sporting CP −2.540.0%2.50
- Casa Pia +1.537.8%2.65
- Casa Pia +2.560.0%1.67
- Casa Pia −1.51.3%78.21
- Sporting CP +1.598.7%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored153
Favourite won57.5%
Avg chance given to result43.6%
1X2 Brier0.546
Over 2.5 called right60.1%
BTTS called right56.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 37.7% | 34.6% |
| 40–50% | 55 | 44.9% | 49.1% |
| 50–60% | 32 | 54.5% | 59.4% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 65.8% | 84.2% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 75.6% | 76.5% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 85.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 124 of 153 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5430 | 0.5271 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.7% | 45.6% |
| Favourite won | 58.1% | 58.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 124 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 153 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.