Sporting CP vs Estoril – 27 Feb 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 24 Fri, Feb 27 · 20:45 Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa

Sporting CP 2nd · 58 pts · 23 played WWDWW

3–0Full time

Estoril 7th · 33 pts · 23 played WWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP were clear favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estoril. Sporting CP had 6.1 days of rest, Estoril 5.1 and had to travel 22 km.

Away travel22 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sporting CP74%

Draw17%

Estoril9%

Expected goals 2.41 – 0.73

Sporting CP77%

Draw15%

Estoril8%

Expected goals 2.54 – 0.70

Sporting CP74%

Draw17%

Estoril9%

Expected goals 2.41 – 0.73

Sporting CP68%

Draw20%

Estoril12%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.81

Sporting CP74%

Draw17%

Estoril9%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.74

Over 2.5 61% Both score 47% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.11
Matches 18

Team strength

Sporting CP

Estoril

85 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

75 AttackIn forecast 21

81 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sporting CP

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sporting CP

Estoril

2.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.52 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

2.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

0.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.63

100% Scored inContext 74%

52% Clean sheetsContext 13%

17.91 ShotsContext 11.91

6.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.39

38% On target shareContext 37%

12.09 Shots in the boxContext 7.83

67% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 17%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.48

7.87 Shots allowedContext 11.61

2.95 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.36

2.52 BlocksContext 2.95

2.58 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

82% Save rateContext 61%

62% PossessionIn forecast 53%

530 PassesContext 424

464 Accurate passesContext 346

88% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.52 FoulsContext 12.13

13.35 Fouls sufferedContext 12.09

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.52

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

0.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext +0.85

100% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.50 ShotsContext 11.30

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

36% On target shareContext 44%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

70% Box shareContext 69%

15% ConversionContext 21%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.33

9.90 Shots allowedContext 12.30

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

4.38 BlocksContext 3.63

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

82% Save rateContext 64%

59% PossessionIn forecast 54%

507 PassesContext 451

444 Accurate passesContext 377

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.90 FoulsContext 11.70

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sporting CP

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km608 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estoril

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel22 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sporting CP	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb	5.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	22 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	608 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Sporting CP Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Rui Silva(G)

20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 26O. Diomande 22Iván Fresneda

5H. Morita 42M. Hjulmand

31Luis Guilherme 17Trincão 10Geny Catamo

97L. Suárez

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

1Joel Robles(G)

20Gonçalo Costa 4Ferro 25F. Bacher 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 10J. Holsgrove 6Jandro Orellana

99R. Guitane

9A. Marqués 14Y. Begraoui

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sporting CP Absences are shown before kick-off

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estoril+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Sporting CP · Home 2.55points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 9-1-1
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.36

Estoril · Away 1.00points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-6
Scored: 1.82
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Sporting CP	Estoril
Moreirense	W 3–0 AW 3–0 H	D 3–3 H
Famalicao	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A	L 0–4 A
FC Porto	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Nacional	W 2–1 HW 4–1 A	D 1–1 H
Arouca	W 2–1 AW 6–0 H	W 4–3 H
Casa Pia	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A	D 2–2 A
GIL Vicente	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A
Rio Ave	W 4–0 H	W 4–0 A
Guimaraes	W 4–1 A	W 4–2 HL 2–3 A
AVS	W 6–0 H	L 0–3 AW 3–1 H
Benfica	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 A
Estrela	W 4–0 H	W 5–0 AD 1–1 H
Santa Clara	W 2–1 A	W 4–2 AL 0–1 H
Alverca	W 2–0 H	W 4–1 H
Tondela	W 3–0 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
SC Braga	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Points	55 of 66 · 2.50 per game	33 of 66 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

7 Sporting CP wins0 draws0 Estoril wins

Goals per game2.43 – 0.29 Over 2.543% Both scored29% Clean sheets71% · 0%

27 Sep 2025Estoril0–1Sporting CP
3 Mar 2025Sporting CP3–1Estoril
27 Sep 2024Estoril0–3Sporting CP
11 May 2024Estoril0–1Sporting CP
5 Jan 2024Sporting CP5–1Estoril
27 Feb 2023Sporting CP2–0Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sporting CP	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	2.57	2.00
Conceded per game	0.52	1.70
Match goals	3.09	3.70	3.13
Over 1.5	91%	83%
Over 2.5	65%	70%	61%
Over 3.5	26%	65%
Both teams scored	48%	61%	47%
Clean sheets	52%	13%
Failed to score	0%	26%
Games	23	23

	Sporting CP	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	2.70	2.40
Conceded per game	0.50	1.80
Match goals	3.20	4.20	3.13
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	90%	61%
Over 3.5	30%	80%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	47%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sporting CP	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	6.95	4.62
Corners conceded	2.85	4.86
Match total	9.80	9.48	9.20
Over 8.5	75% 15/20	57% 12/21
Over 9.5	50% 10/20	48% 10/21
Over 10.5	30% 6/20	38% 8/21
Cards
Cards	2.43	2.52
Opponent cards	2.87	2.13
Match total	5.30	4.65	5.18
Over 3.5	61% 14/23	83% 19/23
Over 4.5	57% 13/23	57% 13/23

	Sporting CP	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.10
Corners conceded	4.00	4.70
Match total	11.00	9.80	9.20
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.00
Opponent cards	2.40	2.20
Match total	5.10	4.20	5.18
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 4.86

Red cards0.00league 0.28

Cards 5+33%league 59%

Fouls26.7league 26.9

Penalties0.11league 0.44

Home wins56%league 43%

Sporting CP

No previous matches with this referee.

Estoril2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D31 Aug 25A · Tondela2–23
W22 Feb 25H · Rio Ave2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.