Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 18). Sporting CP had 21.9 days of rest, Estrela 21.1 and had to travel 8 km.
Away travel8 kmRest days21.9 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Sporting CP84%
Draw11%
Estrela4%
Sporting CP84%
Draw11%
Estrela5%
Sporting CP84%
Draw11%
Estrela4%
Sporting CP79%
Draw14%
Estrela7%
Sporting CP84%
Draw11%
Estrela5%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 11
Team strength
Sporting CP
Estrela
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
75
AttackIn forecast
24
81
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPEstrela
2.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
0.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
2.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
0.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
100%
Scored inContext
55%
55%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
19.91
ShotsContext
11.91
7.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
31%
13.27
Shots in the boxContext
6.09
66%
Box shareContext
50%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.13
7.36
Shots allowedContext
11.55
2.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.82
2.18
BlocksContext
3.18
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
78%
Save rateContext
76%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
537
PassesContext
345
468
Accurate passesContext
275
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.73
FoulsContext
13.36
13.55
Fouls sufferedContext
16.55
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
2.64
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
0.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.30
ShotsContext
12.20
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
41%
On target shareContext
29%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
62%
Box shareContext
51%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.60
BlocksContext
3.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
78%
Save rateContext
74%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
535
PassesContext
354
468
Accurate passesContext
285
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.10
FoulsContext
13.30
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
17.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estrela
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel8 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 21.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 8 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
7G. Quenda
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
79A. Chernev
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
21Guilherme Montóia
6Oumar Ngom
19Paulo Moreira
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
11Jovane Cabral
98Kikas
99A. Marcus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
Estrela · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Alverca | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Nacional | W 4–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | W 5–3 A |
| Points | 18 of 18 · 3.00 per game | 8 of 18 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Sporting CP wins0 draws0 Estrela wins
Goals per game3.25 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 29 Mar 2025Estrela0–3Sporting CP
- 1 Nov 2024Sporting CP5–1Estrela
- 29 Mar 2024Estrela1–2Sporting CP
- 5 Nov 2023Sporting CP3–2Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.45 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.55 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.45 | 3.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 36% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 55% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 45% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Sporting CP | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.50 | 3.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.20 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.45 | 3.18 | |
| Match total | 5.63 | 6.00 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 91% 10/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Sporting CP | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 8.22 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 6.10 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.18league 5.19
Red cards0.09league 0.28
Cards 5+45%league 66%
Fouls28.5league 27.6
Penalties0.18league 0.50
Home wins36%league 34%
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
Estrela2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 Aug 25A · Estoril1–11
- L5 Jan 25H · Estoril2–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP11 games · scored 27 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
6
2
61-75
9
1
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
0-15
3
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 19 · conceded 6
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
5
61-75
6
2
76-90
Estrela9 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
0-15
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
