Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Guimaraes. Sporting CP had 5 days of rest, Guimaraes 9 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days5 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Sporting CP63%
Draw22%
Guimaraes15%
Sporting CP72%
Draw18%
Guimaraes10%
Sporting CP63%
Draw22%
Guimaraes15%
Sporting CP56%
Draw25%
Guimaraes20%
Sporting CP63%
Draw22%
Guimaraes15%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 79
Team strength
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
75
AttackIn forecast
28
81
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPGuimaraes
2.48
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
0.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
68%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
17.29
ShotsContext
12.94
6.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
38%
On target shareContext
30%
11.65
Shots in the boxContext
7.23
67%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.12
8.26
Shots allowedContext
10.77
3.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
2.52
BlocksContext
3.04
2.52
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
78%
Save rateContext
70%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
536
PassesContext
380
471
Accurate passesContext
312
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.35
FoulsContext
14.26
13.48
Fouls sufferedContext
14.87
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
2.26
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.00
ShotsContext
13.20
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
35%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
70%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.10
Shots allowedContext
8.60
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.56
BlocksContext
2.86
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
69%
Save rateContext
70%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
563
PassesContext
419
497
Accurate passesContext
350
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.20
FoulsContext
13.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Guimaraes
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel311 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Apr | 9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
6Z. Debast
72Eduardo Quaresma
5H. Morita
23Daniel Bragança
8Pote
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
27Charles(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
4Óscar Rivas
66T. Strata
16Beni
23Diogo Sousa
48N. Saviolo
20Samu
88M. Nogueira
11Gustavo Silva
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.33points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-2-2
- Scored
- 2.87
- Conceded
- 0.67
Guimaraes · Away
0.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-9
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A | W 5–0 HW 1–0 A |
| AVS | D 1–1 AW 6–0 H | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Estrela | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 4–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Alverca | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Estoril | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | L 2–4 AW 3–2 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| FC Porto | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Arouca | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 70 of 90 · 2.33 per game | 42 of 90 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Sporting CP wins1 draws1 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game2.86 – 1.14
Over 2.571%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets57% · 0%
- 23 Dec 2025Guimaraes1–4Sporting CP
- 17 May 2025Sporting CP2–0Guimaraes
- 3 Jan 2025Guimaraes4–4Sporting CP
- 21 Apr 2024Sporting CP3–0Guimaraes
- 9 Dec 2023Guimaraes3–2Sporting CP
- 24 Apr 2023Guimaraes0–2Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.48 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 2.61 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 45% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 42% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 32% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Sporting CP | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.52 | 4.34 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.26 | 3.62 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 7.96 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 20/27 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 15/27 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 10/27 | 21% 6/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.77 | 2.77 | |
| Match total | 5.09 | 5.12 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 19/31 | 68% 21/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 17/31 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Sporting CP | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.75 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.04league 4.85
Red cards0.42league 0.24
Cards 5+58%league 58%
Fouls27.8league 26.8
Penalties0.34league 0.44
Home wins59%league 41%
Sporting CP10 with this referee
Record8-1-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- D5 Dec 25A · Benfica1–15
- W31 Oct 25H · Alverca2–01
- W13 Sep 25A · Famalicao2–13
- W2 Feb 25H · Farense3–11
- L5 Dec 24A · Moreirense1–21
Guimaraes12 with this referee
Record5-5-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against5 · 1
Reds1
- W30 Jan 26H · Moreirense1–02
- D20 Sep 25H · SC Braga1–12
- L11 Aug 25A · FC Porto0–33
- W16 Mar 25H · Estrela2–01
- D24 Feb 25A · FC Porto1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP31 games · scored 77 · conceded 22
5
3
0-15
9
3
16-30
17
1
31-45
13
2
46-60
13
3
61-75
20
10
76-90
Guimaraes31 games · scored 38 · conceded 43
2
6
0-15
8
6
16-30
7
8
31-45
6
8
46-60
10
7
61-75
5
8
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
6
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
