Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tondela. Sporting CP had 3 days of rest, Tondela 4.2 and had to travel 219 km.
Away travel219 kmRest days3 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sporting CP84%
Draw12%
Tondela4%
Sporting CP87%
Draw10%
Tondela4%
Sporting CP84%
Draw12%
Tondela4%
Sporting CP79%
Draw15%
Tondela6%
Sporting CP84%
Draw11%
Tondela4%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 40%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 18
Team strength
Sporting CP
Tondela
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
75
AttackIn forecast
16
81
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPTondela
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
100%
Scored inContext
40%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
17.33
ShotsContext
9.97
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.31
38%
On target shareContext
32%
11.53
Shots in the boxContext
6.34
66%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.82
8.23
Shots allowedContext
13.13
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.97
2.58
BlocksContext
3.45
2.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.68
79%
Save rateContext
73%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
531
PassesContext
324
465
Accurate passesContext
256
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.23
FoulsContext
14.03
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.80
ShotsContext
10.00
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
37%
On target shareContext
33%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
66%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
13.90
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.78
BlocksContext
3.70
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
67%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
529
PassesContext
363
463
Accurate passesContext
291
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.90
FoulsContext
13.20
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Tondela
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel219 km166 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 4.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 219 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 166 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
6Z. Debast
72Eduardo Quaresma
13G. Vagiannidis
23Daniel Bragança
5H. Morita
7G. Quenda
8Pote
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
27Rodrigo Conceição
4Christian Marques
44João Silva
48Tiago Manso
32Juan Rodríguez
15S. Sithole
8Hélder Tavares
70M. Moudjatovic
16Rony Lopes
7Pedro Henryque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.43points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-2
- Scored
- 2.93
- Conceded
- 0.57
Tondela · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-9
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 2.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | D 1–1 AW 6–0 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Estrela | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 4–2 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Alverca | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Estoril | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Arouca | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Guimaraes | W 4–1 A | L 0–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 69 of 87 · 2.38 per game | 21 of 87 · 0.72 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Sporting CP wins0 draws0 Tondela wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 26 Oct 2025Tondela0–3Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 2.37 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 33% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 60% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Sporting CP | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.60 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.58 | 3.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.19 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 9.34 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 19/26 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 14/26 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 10/26 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.77 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.94 | 5.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 18/30 | 67% 20/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 16/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Sporting CP | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 11.11 | 10.00 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.00 | 5.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.28league 4.82
Red cards0.11league 0.23
Cards 5+83%league 57%
Fouls26.1league 26.8
Penalties0.44league 0.44
Home wins56%league 41%
Sporting CP2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 May 25H · Guimaraes2–03
- W18 Apr 25H · Moreirense3–12
Tondela1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Aug 25H · Famalicao0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP30 games · scored 75 · conceded 20
5
3
0-15
9
3
16-30
17
1
31-45
13
2
46-60
12
3
61-75
19
8
76-90
Tondela30 games · scored 21 · conceded 50
6
4
0-15
1
8
16-30
2
9
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
11
61-75
3
12
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
