St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
St. Truiden
4th · 33 pts · 18 played
WWWWL
First leg3–1
1–0Full time
KV Mechelen
5th · 30 pts · 18 played
DWLWW
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. St. Truiden had 7.8 days of rest, KV Mechelen 8 and had to travel.
Rest days7.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
St. Truiden44%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen29%
St. Truiden44%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen30%
St. Truiden44%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen29%
St. Truiden37%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen36%
St. Truiden44%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen30%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 25
Team strength
St. TruidenKV Mechelen
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
37
AttackIn forecast
18
32
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenKV Mechelen
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
83%
Scored inContext
89%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
13.83
ShotsContext
10.39
4.28
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
39%
9.47
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
68%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.93
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.78
Shots allowedContext
14.83
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.24
BlocksContext
4.47
3.28
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.06
73%
Save rateContext
89%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
432
PassesContext
392
355
Accurate passesContext
320
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.22
FoulsContext
9.78
11.06
Fouls sufferedContext
10.61
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.70
ShotsContext
9.60
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
31%
On target shareContext
37%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
69%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.90
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
74%
Save rateContext
86%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
422
PassesContext
396
348
Accurate passesContext
323
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.90
FoulsContext
10.70
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 180 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
60R. Vanwesemael
5S. Taniguchi
26V. Musliu
20R. Van Helden
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
4Gora Diouf
8M. Konaté
33T. St. Jago
17Mathis Servais
29D. Salifou
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
11B. Bafdili
9M. van Brederode
20L. Lauberbach
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
2.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.22
KV Mechelen · Away
1.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-2
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | St. Truiden | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Gent | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Dender | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 30 of 51 · 1.76 per game | 30 of 51 · 1.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 St. Truiden wins0 draws0 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025KV Mechelen1–3St. Truiden
- 3 Dec 2023KV Mechelen0–2St. Truiden
- 17 Sep 2023St. Truiden2–0KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.22 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 2.44 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 39% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 11% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| St. Truiden | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.82 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.41 | 6.28 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 11.11 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 13/17 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 12/17 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 8/17 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.39 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 3.78 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 9/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 5/18 | 33% 6/18 | |
| St. Truiden | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.60 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.90 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.74
Red cards0.12league 0.18
Cards 5+24%league 40%
Fouls20.0league 22.8
Penalties0.28league 0.29
Home wins44%league 42%
St. Truiden1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D9 Dec 23H · OH Leuven1–10
KV Mechelen5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W2 Mar 24A · Cercle Brugge3–22
- W20 Dec 23H · Standard Liege3–02
- W26 Nov 23A · Kortrijk3–02
- L22 Oct 23A · Genk0–42
- D30 Sep 23H · Antwerp0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden18 games · scored 27 · conceded 22
1
1
0-15
7
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
9
3
76-90
KV Mechelen18 games · scored 24 · conceded 20
4
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
9
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
