St. Truiden
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
St. Truiden46.0%fair odds 2.18
Draw27.1%fair odds 3.70
RAAL La Louvière27.0%fair odds 3.71
Expected goals1.50 – 1.09total 2.60
Likeliest score1–112.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
RAAL La Louvière
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| St. Truiden ↓ · RAAL La Louvière → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are St. Truiden goals, columns RAAL La Louvière goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%7.75
- 1–010.5%9.48
- 2–19.2%10.87
- 2–08.4%11.89
- 0–08.1%12.34
- 0–17.5%13.32
- 1–26.7%14.92
- 2–25.0%19.86
- 3–14.6%21.70
- 0–24.5%22.41
Winning margin
9.2%
St. Truiden by 3+
fair 10.82
14.1%
St. Truiden by 2
fair 7.10
22.6%
St. Truiden by 1
fair 4.42
27.1%
Draw
fair 3.70
16.3%
RAAL La Louvière by 1
fair 6.13
7.5%
RAAL La Louvière by 2
fair 13.39
3.2%
RAAL La Louvière by 3+
fair 31.40
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
St. Truiden goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
RAAL La Louvière goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden win | 46.0% | 45.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.6% | +0.5 pp |
| RAAL La Louvière win | 27.0% | 28.3% | -1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.1% | 50.6% | -2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.4% | 54.6% | -2.3 pp |
| Expected goals St. Truiden | 1.50 | 1.53 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals RAAL La Louvière | 1.09 | 1.17 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- St. Truiden win46.0%2.18
- Draw27.1%3.70
- RAAL La Louvière win27.0%3.71
- Double chance St. Truiden or draw73.0%1.37
- Double chance St. Truiden or RAAL La Louvière72.9%1.37
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw54.0%1.85
- Draw no bet St. Truiden63.0%1.59
- Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière37.0%2.70
Goals
- Over 0.591.9%1.09
- Over 1.573.8%1.35
- Over 2.548.1%2.08
- Over 3.526.3%3.80
- Over 4.512.2%8.19
- Under 1.526.2%3.82
- Under 2.551.9%1.93
- Under 3.573.7%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes52.4%1.91
- No47.6%2.10
- Yes and over 2.539.5%2.53
- St. Truiden win and yes20.6%4.86
- Draw and yes19.0%5.27
- RAAL La Louvière win and yes12.8%7.80
Team goals
- St. Truiden over 0.577.7%1.29
- St. Truiden over 1.544.3%2.26
- St. Truiden over 2.519.2%5.22
- RAAL La Louvière over 0.566.5%1.50
- RAAL La Louvière over 1.529.9%3.35
- RAAL La Louvière over 2.59.8%10.16
- St. Truiden clean sheet33.5%2.99
- RAAL La Louvière clean sheet22.3%4.49
- St. Truiden win to nil25.4%3.94
- RAAL La Louvière win to nil14.2%7.06
Handicap
- St. Truiden −1.523.3%4.29
- St. Truiden −2.59.2%10.82
- RAAL La Louvière +1.576.7%1.30
- RAAL La Louvière +2.590.8%1.10
- RAAL La Louvière −1.510.7%9.39
- St. Truiden +1.589.3%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored29
Favourite won51.7%
Avg chance given to result40.0%
1X2 Brier0.576
Over 2.5 called right58.6%
BTTS called right55.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.8% | 16.7% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 43.2% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 56.2% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 29 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5474 | 0.6027 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 29 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.