Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Aug 17 · 15:00 Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond
St. Truiden 5th · 7 pts · 3 played
2–1Full time
RAAL La Louvière 12th · 3 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

St. Truiden were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. St. Truiden usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. St. Truiden had 8.8 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 7.1 and had to travel.

Rest days8.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
St. Truiden46%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière27%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.09
St. Truiden45%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière28%
Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17
St. Truiden46%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière27%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.09
St. Truiden39%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière33%
Expected goals 1.34 – 1.23
St. Truiden45%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière28%
Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17
Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)

No weather data yet

RefereeBert Verbeke
  • Cards per match 2.0
  • Penalties per match 0.00
  • Matches 1

Team strength

St. TruidenRAAL La Louvière
27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25
35 Current StrengthIn forecast 17
37 AttackIn forecast 15
32 DefenceIn forecast 15
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

RAAL La Louvière

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

St. TruidenRAAL La Louvière
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.33
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.81 xGVia Att/Def 0.67
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
100% Scored inContext 33%
33% Clean sheetsContext 33%
14.00 ShotsContext 10.00
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 1.67
29% On target shareContext 17%
10.67 Shots in the boxContext 5.67
76% Box shareContext 54%
14% ConversionContext 3%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
7.33 Shots allowedContext 10.33
2.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
4.33 BlocksContext 3.00
1.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67
67% Save rateContext 85%
54% PossessionIn forecast 34%
433 PassesContext 253
351 Accurate passesContext 173
81% Pass accuracyContext 68%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.73
15.00 FoulsContext 15.00
11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.33
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.81 xGVia Att/Def 0.67
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.61 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
80% Scored inContext 33%
30% Clean sheetsContext 33%
12.40 ShotsContext 10.00
3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 1.67
27% On target shareContext 17%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 5.67
62% Box shareContext 54%
10% ConversionContext 3%
2.14 OffsidesContext —
12.20 Shots allowedContext 10.33
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
4.00 BlocksContext 3.00
2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67
66% Save rateContext 85%
56% PossessionIn forecast 34%
517 PassesContext 253
435 Accurate passesContext 173
84% Pass accuracyContext 68%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.73
11.60 FoulsContext 15.00
11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 3 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

St. Truiden
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
RAAL La Louvière
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
St. Truiden RAAL La Louvière
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Aug7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 10 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one6.27.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

St. Truiden Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 26V. Musliu 20R. Van Helden 19L. Patris
8A. Sissako 6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui 13R. Ito 60R. Vanwesemael
9A. Ferrari
+1 more reported missing outside this XI
RAAL La Louvière Confirmed XI
5-3-2
21M. Peano(G)
5T. Lutonda 25D. Lamego 13M. Maisonneuve 4Wagane Faye 11J. Liongola
23J. Ito 15S. Lahssaini 10M. Pau
29O. Mendy 9M. Guindo
+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
St. Truiden Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • St. Truiden+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

St. Truiden · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
2-0-0
Scored
2.50
Conceded
0.50
RAAL La Louvière · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentSt. TruidenRAAL La Louvière
Charleroi D 1–1 A W 1–0 H
Gent W 3–1 H L 0–1 A
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

St. TruidenRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 2.000.33
Conceded per game 0.671.00
Match goals 2.671.33 2.60
Over 1.5 100%33%
Over 2.5 33%0% 48%
Over 3.5 33%0%
Both teams scored 67%0% 52%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 0%67%
Games33
St. TruidenRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 2.000.33
Conceded per game 0.671.00
Match goals 2.671.33 2.60
Over 1.5 100%33%
Over 2.5 33%0% 48%
Over 3.5 33%0%
Both teams scored 67%0% 52%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 0%67%
Games33

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

St. TruidenRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won5.004.00
Corners conceded3.003.00
Match total8.007.009.52
Over 8.533% 1/30% 0/3
Over 9.533% 1/30% 0/3
Over 10.50% 0/30% 0/3
Cards
Cards1.672.00
Opponent cards2.330.33
Match total4.002.333.79
Over 3.567% 2/30% 0/3
Over 4.533% 1/30% 0/3
St. TruidenRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.00
Corners conceded4.503.00
Match total9.307.009.52
Over 8.550% 5/100% 0/3
Over 9.550% 5/100% 0/3
Over 10.530% 3/100% 0/3
Cards
Cards1.002.00
Opponent cards1.800.33
Match total2.802.333.79
Over 3.540% 4/100% 0/3
Over 4.510% 1/100% 0/3

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bert Verbeke 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.00league 3.59
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 31%
Fouls17.0league 22.9
Penalties0.00league 0.41
Home wins100%league 45%
St. Truiden

No previous matches with this referee.

RAAL La Louvière

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

St. Truiden3 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
3 1 76-90
RAAL La Louvière3 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1 3 0-15
2 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 4 46-60
4 61-75
5 2 76-90
RAAL La Louvière3 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven Genk 12 Zulte Waregem Club Brugge KV 01 KV Mechelen Gent 11 Union St. Gilloise Standard Liege 30 Dender Anderlecht 02 St. Truiden RAAL La Louvière 21 Charleroi Antwerp 11 Cercle Brugge KVC Westerlo 41