Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Standard Liege
6th · 27 pts · 19 played
DWWLW
First leg0–1
1–2Full time
St. Truiden
3rd · 36 pts · 19 played
WWWLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 30). Standard Liege had 6.1 days of rest, St. Truiden 5.1 and had to travel.
Rest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Standard Liege39%
Draw27%
St. Truiden34%
Standard Liege40%
Draw27%
St. Truiden33%
Standard Liege39%
Draw27%
St. Truiden34%
Standard Liege32%
Draw27%
St. Truiden41%
Standard Liege40%
Draw27%
St. Truiden33%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 40
Team strength
Standard LiegeSt. Truiden
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
29
AttackIn forecast
37
29
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeSt. Truiden
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.16
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
58%
Scored inContext
84%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
9.68
ShotsContext
13.58
3.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.32
35%
On target shareContext
32%
6.61
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
66%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.88
13.84
Shots allowedContext
11.68
4.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.37
4.00
BlocksContext
3.17
3.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.21
77%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
361
PassesContext
431
281
Accurate passesContext
354
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.21
FoulsContext
12.21
11.84
Fouls sufferedContext
10.84
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
1.84
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
50%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.60
ShotsContext
13.20
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
34%
On target shareContext
33%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
73%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.40
BlocksContext
3.11
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
80%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
360
PassesContext
435
277
Accurate passesContext
363
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.30
FoulsContext
11.80
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km217 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 217 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 23 | 23 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
21L. Pirard(G)
20I. Karamoko
25I. Hautekiet
29D. Dierckx
7T. Mohr
23M. Ilaimaharitra
94C. Nielsen
18H. Lawrence
8N. Mehssatou
59T. Nkada
10D. Eckert Ayensa
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
60R. Vanwesemael
5S. Taniguchi
26V. Musliu
20R. Van Helden
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
1.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.11
St. Truiden · Away
1.56points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Charleroi | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Gent | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 H | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Genk | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 27 of 54 · 1.50 per game | 33 of 54 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Standard Liege wins1 draws2 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 9 Nov 2025St. Truiden1–0Standard Liege
- 27 Dec 2023Standard Liege1–1St. Truiden
- 30 Jul 2023St. Truiden1–0Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.16 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.63 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 37% | 53% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 16% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Standard Liege | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.70 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 30% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.84 | 5.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.37 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.21 | 10.11 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 9/19 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 6/19 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 4/19 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.16 | |
| Match total | 4.21 | 4.05 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 13/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 10/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Standard Liege | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 10.70 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.20 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.80
Red cards0.28league 0.19
Cards 5+35%league 41%
Fouls23.4league 22.8
Penalties0.50league 0.30
Home wins55%league 41%
Standard Liege5 with this referee
Record0-0-5
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L27 Sep 25H · Club Brugge KV1–25
- L16 Feb 24A · KVC Westerlo1–21
- L3 Dec 23A · Club Brugge KV0–22
- L19 Aug 23H · Cercle Brugge0–12
- L30 Jul 23A · St. Truiden0–11
St. Truiden3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W4 Oct 25A · KV Mechelen3–11
- W17 Sep 23H · KV Mechelen2–01
- W30 Jul 23H · Standard Liege1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege19 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
4
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
76-90
St. Truiden19 games · scored 28 · conceded 22
2
1
0-15
7
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
9
3
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
