UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 29 · 20:00 Merkur Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz 32nd · 4 pts · 7 played
1–0Full time
Brann 22nd · 9 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Sturm Graz were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Sturm Graz had 7.1 days of rest, Brann 7.1 and had to travel 1,620 km.

Away travel1,620 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sturm Graz45%
Draw26%
Brann29%
Expected goals 1.63 – 1.26
Sturm Graz45%
Draw27%
Brann29%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.17
Sturm Graz46%
Draw26%
Brann29%
Expected goals 1.63 – 1.25
Sturm Graz38%
Draw26%
Brann36%
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.42
Sturm Graz45%
Draw26%
Brann29%
Expected goals 1.59 – 1.24
Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Graz)

No weather data yet

Referee · AlbaniaJuxhin Xhaja
  • Cards per match 5.2
  • Penalties per match 0.35
  • Matches 20

Team strength

Sturm GrazBrann
25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
32 AttackIn forecast 21
37 DefenceIn forecast 30
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sturm Graz

Attack—
Defense risk—

Brann

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sturm GrazBrann
0.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43
0.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49
-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.02
43% Scored inContext 71%
14% Clean sheetsContext 43%
9.00 ShotsContext 11.71
2.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67
32% On target shareContext 34%
5.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.14
56% Box shareContext 64%
6% ConversionContext 11%
2.60 OffsidesContext 2.20
12.71 Shots allowedContext 13.14
4.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.86
3.83 BlocksContext 3.83
3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57
71% Save rateContext 74%
44% PossessionIn forecast 46%
359 PassesContext 371
275 Accurate passesContext 287
77% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.82
16.43 FoulsContext 11.00
14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.14
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.14
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
0.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49
+0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
70% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
11.20 ShotsContext 12.00
3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
29% On target shareContext 41%
6.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.14
58% Box shareContext 64%
7% ConversionContext 14%
1.67 OffsidesContext 2.33
11.10 Shots allowedContext 12.11
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63
3.60 BlocksContext 3.25
2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
59% Save rateContext 73%
51% PossessionIn forecast 48%
402 PassesContext 371
312 Accurate passesContext 287
78% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.73 Team ratingContext 6.82
14.00 FoulsContext 11.78
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.11
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sturm Graz
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,913 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Brann
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,620 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sturm Graz Brann
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,620 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,913 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one172.920.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sturm Graz Confirmed XI
4-3-1-2
53D. Khudyakov(G)
17E. Karić 5T. Oermann 47E. Aiwu 23A. Malić
39Luca Weinhandl 4J. Gorenc Stankovič 19T. Horvat
10O. Kiteishvili
11A. Kayombo 77M. Malone
+6 more reported missing outside this XI
Brann Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1M. Dyngeland(G)
17J. Soltvedt 4N. Boakye 3F. Knudsen 21D. De Roeve
8F. Myhre 18J. Sørensen 23T. Pedersen
32M. Haaland 29N. Holm 14U. Mathisen
+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sturm Graz Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Brann Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Sturm Graz-0.3 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Brann+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Sturm Graz · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
0.67
Brann · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-2-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentSturm GrazBrann
Rangers W 2–1 H W 3–0 H
FC Midtjylland L 0–2 A D 3–3 H
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Sturm GrazBrannForecast
Scored per game 0.571.29
Conceded per game 1.571.43
Match goals 2.142.71 2.89
Over 1.5 71%71%
Over 2.5 57%57% 55%
Over 3.5 0%29%
Both teams scored 43%43% 58%
Clean sheets 14%43%
Failed to score 57%29%
Games77
Sturm GrazBrannForecast
Scored per game 0.571.29
Conceded per game 1.571.43
Match goals 2.142.71 2.89
Over 1.5 71%71%
Over 2.5 57%57% 55%
Over 3.5 0%29%
Both teams scored 43%43% 58%
Clean sheets 14%43%
Failed to score 57%29%
Games77

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Sturm GrazBrannLeague
Corners
Corners won3.174.86
Corners conceded6.176.86
Match total9.3411.729.07
Over 8.567% 4/671% 5/7
Over 9.567% 4/671% 5/7
Over 10.533% 2/671% 5/7
Cards
Cards2.001.29
Opponent cards2.142.00
Match total4.143.294.35
Over 3.543% 3/729% 2/7
Over 4.543% 3/714% 1/7
Sturm GrazBrannLeague
Corners
Corners won5.224.78
Corners conceded4.226.33
Match total9.4411.119.07
Over 8.578% 7/967% 6/9
Over 9.556% 5/967% 6/9
Over 10.533% 3/967% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.801.50
Opponent cards3.002.20
Match total4.803.704.35
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Juxhin Xhaja Albania · 20 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.85league 4.13
Red cards0.30league 0.21
Cards 5+65%league 42%
Fouls22.4league 24.2
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins45%league 51%
Sturm Graz

No previous matches with this referee.

Brann

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Sturm Graz7 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
4 61-75
2 76-90
Brann7 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
2 0-15
1 16-30
2 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
3 1 76-90
Sturm Graz10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
3 1 0-15
4 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 5 61-75
1 3 76-90
Brann10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 4 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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