Sturm Graz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sturm Graz59.1%fair odds 1.69
Draw21.7%fair odds 4.61
Celje19.2%fair odds 5.21
Expected goals2.09 – 1.12total 3.20
Likeliest score1–110.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celje
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sturm Graz ↓ · Celje → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sturm Graz goals, columns Celje goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%10.03
- 2–19.9%10.13
- 2–08.8%11.32
- 1–08.0%12.55
- 3–16.9%14.56
- 3–06.1%16.28
- 2–25.5%18.11
- 1–25.3%18.89
- 0–04.6%21.91
- 0–14.0%24.76
Winning margin
18.5%
Sturm Graz by 3+
fair 5.40
18.0%
Sturm Graz by 2
fair 5.54
22.5%
Sturm Graz by 1
fair 4.44
21.7%
Draw
fair 4.61
11.8%
Celje by 1
fair 8.45
5.2%
Celje by 2
fair 19.29
2.2%
Celje by 3+
fair 46.24
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Sturm Graz goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
Celje goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz win | 59.1% | 59.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 21.7% | 21.8% | -0.0 pp |
| Celje win | 19.2% | 18.7% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 61.1% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.4% | 58.4% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Sturm Graz | 2.09 | 2.07 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Celje | 1.12 | 1.09 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sturm Graz win59.1%1.69
- Draw21.7%4.61
- Celje win19.2%5.21
- Double chance Sturm Graz or draw80.8%1.24
- Double chance Sturm Graz or Celje78.3%1.28
- Double chance Celje or draw40.9%2.44
- Draw no bet Sturm Graz75.5%1.32
- Draw no bet Celje24.5%4.08
Goals
- Over 0.595.4%1.05
- Over 1.583.4%1.20
- Over 2.562.1%1.61
- Over 3.539.8%2.51
- Over 4.522.0%4.54
- Under 1.516.6%6.03
- Under 2.537.9%2.64
- Under 3.560.2%1.66
Both teams to score
- Yes59.4%1.68
- No40.6%2.47
- Yes and over 2.549.5%2.02
- Sturm Graz win and yes31.0%3.23
- Draw and yes17.2%5.83
- Celje win and yes11.3%8.83
Team goals
- Sturm Graz over 0.587.6%1.14
- Sturm Graz over 1.561.7%1.62
- Sturm Graz over 2.534.6%2.89
- Celje over 0.567.3%1.49
- Celje over 1.530.8%3.25
- Celje over 2.510.3%9.69
- Sturm Graz clean sheet32.7%3.06
- Celje clean sheet12.4%8.05
- Sturm Graz win to nil28.1%3.55
- Celje win to nil7.9%12.72
Handicap
- Sturm Graz −1.536.6%2.73
- Sturm Graz −2.518.5%5.40
- Celje +1.563.4%1.58
- Celje +2.581.5%1.23
- Celje −1.57.3%13.61
- Sturm Graz +1.592.7%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won66.7%
Avg chance given to result46.2%
1X2 Brier0.484
Over 2.5 called right63.9%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.1% | 58.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.5% | 70.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4838 | 0.5043 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 47.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 18 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.