Sturm Graz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sturm Graz are slight favourites.
Sturm Graz are the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Celje. Sturm Graz have 14.1 days of rest, Celje 14 and have to travel 94 km.
Away travel94 kmRest days14.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 0
Sturm Graz59%
Draw22%
Celje19%
Sturm Graz59%
Draw23%
Celje18%
Sturm Graz59%
Draw22%
Celje19%
Sturm Graz51%
Draw24%
Celje25%
Sturm Graz60%
Draw22%
Celje19%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Graz)
Forecast from 21 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Sturm Graz and Celje. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Celje
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Sturm Graz
3
Clean sheets
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Celje
−1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.82xG against1.94
-
Insight
Sturm Graz
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Celje
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Sturm Graz
−0.29
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.16xG against1.45
Defence
-
Insight
Sturm Graz
3
Clean sheets
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Sturm Graz
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Celje
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Celje
−1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.82xG against1.94
-
Insight
Sturm Graz
−0.29
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.16xG against1.45
Team strength
Sturm GrazCelje
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
32
AttackIn forecast
17
37
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelje
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sturm GrazCelje
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.53
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
2.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
-0.91
0%
Scored inContext
0%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.50
ShotsContext
9.00
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
29%
On target shareContext
28%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
65%
Box shareContext
78%
0%
ConversionContext
0%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
23.50
Shots allowedContext
15.50
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
6.50
BlocksContext
2.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
62%
Save rateContext
71%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
289
PassesContext
582
197
Accurate passesContext
514
68%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.42
Team ratingContext
6.47
15.00
FoulsContext
9.50
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.94
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.50
ShotsContext
9.83
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
30%
On target shareContext
32%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.17
61%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.80
14.60
Shots allowedContext
15.83
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
3.50
BlocksContext
4.00
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
76%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
317
PassesContext
566
236
Accurate passesContext
492
75%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.66
13.10
FoulsContext
12.86
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sturm Graz
DL
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 1 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sturm Graz |
Celje |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct | 14UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 94 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sturm Graz
Last XI · not confirmed
53D. Khudyakov(G)
27L. Balbo
21P. Petrović
2J. Quarshie
23A. Malić
28Jurgen Heil
43J. Hödl
4J. Gorenc Stankovič
78V. Matoshi
26B. Beganović
19Simon Seidl
Celje
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ž. Leban(G)
11M. Avdyli
6A. Tutyškinas
15Žan Žužek
44Ł. Bejger
14L. Tičić
19M. Zabukovnik
13P. Daniel
91Y. Dukuly
9B. Kramer
10S. Sešlar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sturm Graz
No reported absences
Celje
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Sturm Graz+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Celje+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Sturm Graz · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Celje · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sturm Graz | Celje | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Sturm Graz | Celje | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.88 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 63% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sturm Graz | Celje | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.50 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Sturm Graz | Celje | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 12.33 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.20 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Sturm Graz2 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Celje2 games · scored 0 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Sturm Graz9 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Celje9 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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