Sturm Graz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.
Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 32). Absences weigh more on Nottingham Forest. Sturm Graz had 13.9 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 5.1 and had to travel 1,350 km.
Away travel1,350 kmRest days13.9 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 3
Sturm Graz29%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest44%
Sturm Graz27%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest46%
Sturm Graz28%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest46%
Sturm Graz23%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest52%
Sturm Graz29%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest44%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Graz)
No weather data yet
RefereeMykola Balakin
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 48
Team strength
Sturm Graz
Nottingham Forest
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
32
AttackIn forecast
68
37
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sturm GrazNottingham Forest
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
2.40
2.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.67
ShotsContext
15.33
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
37%
On target shareContext
39%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
65%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
4.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
8.67
7.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
6.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.33
82%
Save rateContext
36%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
323
PassesContext
438
236
Accurate passesContext
375
73%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.88
17.00
FoulsContext
14.33
14.67
Fouls sufferedContext
15.33
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
2.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.50
ShotsContext
13.20
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
30%
On target shareContext
35%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
67%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.80
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.22
BlocksContext
3.90
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
74%
Save rateContext
57%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
396
PassesContext
458
307
Accurate passesContext
388
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.10
FoulsContext
12.80
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.44
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sturm Graz
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,339 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,350 km507 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sturm Graz |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 5.1Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,350 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,339 km | 507 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sturm Graz
Confirmed XI
1O. Christensen(G)
17E. Karić
35N. Geyrhofer
47E. Aiwu
23A. Malić
43J. Hödl
4J. Gorenc Stankovič
19T. Horvat
10O. Kiteishvili
77M. Malone
8Filip Rózga
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
13John Victor(G)
3N. Williams
4Morato
31N. Milenković
37N. Savona
6I. Sangaré
22R. Yates
16N. Domínguez
10M. Gibbs-White
24J. McAtee
15A. Kalimuendo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sturm Graz
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sturm Graz+1.7 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Nottingham Forest-2.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sturm Graz · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Sturm Graz | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sturm Graz | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.67 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Sturm Graz | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.80 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sturm Graz | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 11.66 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.66 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Sturm Graz | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 10.50 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mykola Balakin 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 4.06
Red cards0.25league 0.15
Cards 5+46%league 39%
Fouls23.0league 24.9
Penalties0.27league 0.39
Home wins31%league 48%
Sturm Graz1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W29 Jan 25H · RB Leipzig1–02
Nottingham ForestNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sturm Graz3 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Nottingham Forest3 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
Sturm Graz10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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