Sunderland vs Aston Villa – 21 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 21 · 14:00 Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Sunderland 8th · 7 pts · 4 played WLWD

1–1Full time

Aston Villa 19th · 2 pts · 4 played DLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 35). Sunderland had 8 days of rest, Aston Villa 8 and had to travel 272 km.

Away travel272 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Sunderland19%

Draw23%

Aston Villa58%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.97

Sunderland19%

Draw24%

Aston Villa57%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.83

Sunderland19%

Draw23%

Aston Villa58%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.96

Sunderland14%

Draw20%

Aston Villa66%

Expected goals 0.94 – 2.21

Sunderland19%

Draw24%

Aston Villa57%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.85

Over 2.5 58% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sunderland)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 63

Team strength

Sunderland

Aston Villa

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 78

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

62 AttackIn forecast 83

59 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sunderland

Aston Villa

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 0.77

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.84

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.77

50% Scored inContext 0%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

9.25 ShotsContext 10.00

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

24% On target shareContext 25%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

79% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 0%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.00 Shots allowedContext 12.75

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75

3.00 BlocksContext 5.00

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.75

93% Save rateContext 64%

48% PossessionIn forecast 57%

436 PassesContext 453

358 Accurate passesContext 382

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.69

8.00 FoulsContext 11.00

10.25 Fouls sufferedContext 13.25

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

0.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

30% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

9.20 ShotsContext 10.70

2.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

24% On target shareContext 32%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

66% Box shareContext 70%

7% ConversionContext 8%

2.57 OffsidesContext 1.67

11.10 Shots allowedContext 12.20

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.00 BlocksContext 3.40

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

74% Save rateContext 78%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

444 PassesContext 405

370 Accurate passesContext 338

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.80 FoulsContext 9.60

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km774 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel272 km252 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sunderland	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep	8Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	272 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	774 km	252 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	4.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-3-3

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 20N. Mukiele 32T. Hume

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka 11C. Rigg

28E. Le Fée 18W. Isidor 7C. Talbi

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

12L. Digne 5T. Mings 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

44B. Kamara 7J. McGinn

10E. Buendía 27M. Rogers 29E. Guessand

11O. Watkins

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sunderland Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sunderland+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Aston Villa-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 0.50

Aston Villa · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Sunderland	Aston Villa
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 A	L 0–3 H
Brentford	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Sunderland	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	0.00
Conceded per game	0.75	1.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	3.03
Over 1.5	75%	25%
Over 2.5	50%	25%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	25%	0%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	50%	100%
Games	4	4

	Sunderland	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	0.00
Conceded per game	0.75	1.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	3.03
Over 1.5	75%	25%
Over 2.5	50%	25%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	25%	0%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	50%	100%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sunderland	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	6.25
Corners conceded	5.00	4.75
Match total	8.50	11.00	9.78
Over 8.5	25% 1/4	100% 4/4
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	1.25	2.25
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	2.25	4.25	3.73
Over 3.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4

	Sunderland	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	5.56
Corners conceded	3.60	4.89
Match total	8.70	10.45	9.78
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.20
Opponent cards	1.70	2.70
Match total	3.60	4.90	3.73
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 63 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.60

Red cards0.06league 0.15

Cards 5+33%league 43%

Fouls20.6league 22.5

Penalties0.24league 0.26

Home wins38%league 49%

Sunderland2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W29 Sep 23A · Sheffield Wednesday3–00
L6 Aug 23H · Ipswich1–23

Aston Villa3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W15 Jan 25A · Everton1–01
L14 Dec 24A · Nottingham Forest1–21
W24 Feb 24H · Nottingham Forest4–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.