Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bournemouth were slight favourites.
Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 43). Sunderland had 7 days of rest, Bournemouth 7 and had to travel 466 km.
Away travel466 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sunderland26%
Draw25%
Bournemouth48%
Sunderland27%
Draw26%
Bournemouth47%
Sunderland26%
Draw25%
Bournemouth48%
Sunderland20%
Draw23%
Bournemouth56%
Sunderland27%
Draw26%
Bournemouth47%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeTim Robinson
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 115
Team strength
Sunderland
Bournemouth
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
62
AttackIn forecast
83
59
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandBournemouth
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
0.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
67%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.58
ShotsContext
13.33
2.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.92
28%
On target shareContext
37%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.08
72%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.17
Shots allowedContext
11.25
4.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.92
BlocksContext
3.08
3.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
81%
Save rateContext
65%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
378
PassesContext
437
303
Accurate passesContext
358
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.83
FoulsContext
12.75
10.58
Fouls sufferedContext
10.25
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.60
ShotsContext
13.60
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
27%
On target shareContext
38%
7.63
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
71%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.40
15.10
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.00
BlocksContext
3.30
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
80%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
359
PassesContext
450
285
Accurate passesContext
370
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.50
FoulsContext
13.00
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bournemouth
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel466 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 466 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 774 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
7C. Talbi
28E. Le Fée
25B. Traoré
18W. Isidor
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
18B. Diakité
15A. Smith
12T. Adams
8A. Scott
24A. Semenyo
16M. Tavernier
21A. Adli
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bournemouth
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bournemouth+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-0
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 0.83
Bournemouth · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.92 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.08 | 3.25 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 8% | 58% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 58% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Sunderland | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.58 | 4.73 | |
| Match total | 7.91 | 10.64 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 5/12 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.42 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 6/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Sunderland | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 10.34 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tim Robinson 115 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.39league 3.69
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+43%league 41%
Fouls22.6league 22.0
Penalties0.16league 0.18
Home wins48%league 52%
Sunderland8 with this referee
Record2-3-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Apr 25A · Oxford United0–21
- D4 Oct 24H · Leeds2–23
- D9 Apr 24A · Leeds0–04
- W12 Mar 23A · Norwich1–05
- D1 Jan 23A · Blackpool1–12
Bournemouth9 with this referee
Record3-4-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D5 Apr 25A · West Ham2–22
- L21 Apr 24A · Aston Villa1–33
- D1 Feb 24A · West Ham1–13
- W26 Dec 23H · Fulham3–00
- L26 Aug 23H · Tottenham0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland12 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Bournemouth12 games · scored 19 · conceded 20
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
5
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
